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Strategies & Market Trends : Group Therapy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (3427)	4/20/2001 11:14:50 AM
From: Duane L. Olson	Respond to of 4564

Tim, You are certainly correct on NG, according to an article in the current Business Week "The pressure is Building on Natural Gas"... P. 40 in the April 23 issue of BW. Some tidbits: The conclusion first: For now, high natural gas prices are here to stay. Stats, facts, and statements: : " "Last year natural-gas prices quadrupled to $10" (per Mcf) "Having settled back to $5 in March, April prices have climbed about 10%, back to $5.55" ..NG inventories stand...39% below a year ago, and the lowest on record at the start of a refill season" "NG inventories stand at 627 Bcf. That's well below the 3.1 Tcf cushion normally built up to get through even a mild winter." "'We really don't have enough gas reserves or enough capacity to meet demand', says Apache Corp CEO" "If the summer is hot I could easily conceive of spot prices something north of $10 or even $15 (EnronCEO) " The increased use of gas to fuel power plants has boosted demand. Hot weather would make it even more difficult to meet summer requirements while filling storage bins for the winter." "The EIA estimates natural-gas prices for residential consumers could jump about 26% this winter to $9.77 eeper mcf after rising 46% last winter" "More drilling ((almost 950 rigs are active in the US)) doesn't necessarily add up to immediate supply. ..It is getting harder to squeeze production from maturing U.S. properties. Analysts figure it will be two to threee years before production is up to reasonable levels" ":'The industry is running as fast as humanly possible to bring more gas into the market" --Pres Anadarko Energy Svcs. That's a powerful lot of smart people who offer a pretty decent rationale for higher, rather than the normal lower, gas prices through the summer.... That's why I'm buying HGT SJT, BR, APA, ERF, NCN..... looks like a better bet than tech, and may be a good alternative to gold ---just mho. tso