Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (45615)	4/19/2001 7:20:07 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Orders for the quarter were down 60%, sequentially. He expects orders for the next two quarters to be slightly higher because he thinks last quarter was the worst it can get. He might be correct, but a plateauing of orders after a 60% fall is not my idea of a positive that should drive prices higher, but it has.

To: Kirk © who wrote (45615)	4/22/2001 8:20:20 PM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Kirk and Others, RE “.I think it might be time to read one of Tito's step building posts…” You and I believed that AMAT Bottomed last December —- well ahead of the other Hi-Techs that Bottomed just recently. After a longer than usual wait, we finally saw last week the AMAT YoYo Kid took a couple of ascending Steps to the wholehearted approval of the AMAT Bulls… Now it's time for the Bulls to suspend averaging their Longs down so as to give a chance for the Bears to average their Shorts Up. Ah, yes, heres a Plan of what we should do in the coming weeks and months ahead. AMAT Bears are Welcome to Participate. As Michael noticed, they were courteous and gentle while we Bulls suffered for a year. I think they deserve to come join us to profit while the AMAT YoYo Kid YoYoes himself Up till he reaches the Top of the Landing at 115 —- the Point where the AMAT StairCase Workers will re-start work adding Risers and Steps till they Hit another Higher Landing. Here are the Guidelines, primarily used for building Risers and Steps … but could be used also as Guidelines by the Kid in Playing the YoYo while negotiating the Ascending Stairs. Let me Caution Others that these are for AMAT and AMAT only: —- 0 to 7% DROP = Fast Paced Mode Plus 8 to 11% DROP = Fast Paced Mode We saw the First Mode last week. At present the DROP is at -7.16% (% Chg from 59.50 Thursday's Top to 55.24 Friday's Bottom). We'll see tomorrow if the DROP is to continue… These Two Modes are very devastating to AMAT Bears so my advise to them is adopt a Manana habit for the time being: —- Do not Sell Today what you can sell Tomorrow or the other Day for a Higher price. Let me remind Everybody who understand all I'm talking about that this Present YoYo Play that Started from the High of 52.41 on 3/23/01, DROPPED 30.23% to 36.56 and still on the way for the CATCH. The Play is 19 Trading Days Old and should last at least till the end of the month. In an AMAT Bull Market, an 8 Day DROP is met by a 16 Day CATCH (8 X 2) more or less.. Later, the Ascent slows down to: —- 12 to 20% DROP = Slower Paced Mode. The AMAT Kid is still going Up but this time he is nearing a Landing whe re he could rest a bit. 21 to 25% DROP = Landing Mode This Landing or Wide Step last for months like 4 months in 1999 (Feb to Jun). Before the AMAT Kid resumes his trek Upward, he usually steps at –31% but then hurries back Up till he reaches the TOP of the Highest Landing the Workers Have made for him as Playing Area thus far. If for some reason the Kid refuses to go Up and stays longer in –31% —- sorry, something is terribly wrong. Soon the Kid goes down to: —- 31 to 40% = Ground Floor Mode, then to: —- 41 to 59% = Ground Mode , then to:—- 60 to 99% = Bunker Mode then at –100% —- the Bunker becomes the Grave. No Worry, the Bears had their Year, us Bulls should have our Multi-Year. Of course we will have Landings on the way Up. Remember: — a Snake or a Drunk Moves SideWays but AMAT Moves YoYo Ways. Let me address this to Paul V: —- Oh Yeah, you remember 63. We are about to hit that area where the Kid uses as a staging point on his trip to 100. In 1997, the trip went like this —- .AMAT went Up past 63, hit 72 then DROPPED about 31% to the upper 50s then YoYoed his way to 100+… In 1997, the trip was —- from 71 5/8 to 62 1/4 then went back Up to hit not only 100 but 230 (115 Post Split). For the Record, SSB or the Wisdom of Salomon downgraded AMAT both Times only to have Gasped in disbelief when their Followers became TurnCoats who helped AMAT on his Way Up. This time my reading, when AMAT bottomed at 34.13 is --- 88.04 to 61.84 or a 30.67 DROP for the intermediate Landing. To Kdavy, nice to know you finally found the Technique in making Money in Good Companies like AMAT. Don't Fix it while it's working. Thanks for sharing your experiences. I saved a copy of your Post for Future Reference.. Lastly, to AMAT LEAPers —- Relax and Enjoy the Ride. Remember, the more the Stock goes Up, the better to RollOver, like say you have Jan 2002s and want to replace them with Jan 2003s. If you are Adept in Playing the AMAT YoYo, you'll find Rolling Over the LEAPs are not so hard at all. Just do it little by little —- like if you have 100 Calls, do it 10 Calls at a time