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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chris who wrote (6058)	4/19/2001 9:00:17 PM
From: Chris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

EVERYONE, please do not let greed overtake your trading decisions. NAZ has gone up 30% in last couple days.. I know making the "making money" feeling is back, but PLEASE take profits and protect your positions. We all felt the pain of a bear market, so just be careful with this buying mania atmosphere. View the market objectively, and not let the CNBC noise get to you.

To: Chris who wrote (6058)	4/19/2001 9:31:06 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Chris, nice reads and sage advice. We were just discussing stop losses on our site last night. AS I just mentioned in an earlier post, on the dailies and using common sense, one would think that we should be due a pullback. However if this is a short squeeze, we may not get it and the weekly charts may prove more valid. The big question of course is what will happen to all those QQQs and stocks that will be called away this Saturday after expiration. Will the call buyers be anxious to sell and lock in profits or will they hold? Early next week should tell us a lot. Due to all teh posts today on SI, I am waaay behind but from teh quick peek I took at my own charts, it looks like we should have a minor pullback but that we won't come down much right off. If we go up too much more though, our indicator is going to give a hard sell trigger and the result of those is usually not pleasant. One other sign that this rally may be a bit healthier than before, I am noticing all teh defensive issues being sold. I posted here months ago we would be able to tell a genuine tech bounce by the selling of the defensive stuff. Note how JNJ, MO, asnd especially Drug stocks are all being sold now. I am not saying the bottom is definitively in, but we probably won't go crashing down to new lows right away. BWDIK Good Luck, Lee

To: Chris who wrote (6058)	4/20/2001 9:56:27 AM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

>>I started shorting the Dow Index stock (DIA's), noticing paul shread's rising wedge<< Thanks for blaming that on me. <ggg> I think I said at the time it had 2-3 weeks to run, which gave it upside to around 10,500/early May. Obviously, it's negated now, but I think it may be forming another rising wedge here; will look more closely later - until then it's a strictly speculative observation. That said, it looks like maximum downside based on the new pattern is 9400 or so, so it looks like some sort of bottom may be in. On the other hand, stocks like GM and IP have been utterly unable to take out the most basic resistance and are setting lower highs, as is the Dow. If not for the techs, I suspect yesterday would have been a down day for the Dow. That could mean that fresh money has stopped coming into the market, and that we have sector rotation again. And to quote Don, we all know how that ends. ;-) And looking at your monthly chart, it occurred to me that the Dow may be in a two-year down channel. Looking at your daily COMPX chart, it looks like it could go right through that upper channel, based on your indicators. FWIW, I was noticing yesterday that slow stochastics and CCI are way overbought, but that MACD, PPO and ADX have more potential upside, which could mean a pullback and then higher highs. Also noticed that we are completely out of the upper Bollinger Bands on the major indexes, but I couldn't tell you what the heck that means. ;-) stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyymy[pb50!b200!c20!d20,2][vc60][iud20!lf!ll14!lb14!la12,26,9!lh14,3!lc20!le12,26,9!lg] And finally, to revisit that recent broadening top in the PC ratio (page A24 of today's IBD): I've never used a measured pattern target on that ratio before, but believe it or not, that would predict minimum downside on the PC ratio to .25 (it closed at .44 yesterday). I don't know if that's even possible, but I would interpret that to mean that this rally could go quite a bit higher - and there may be no downside protection at the end of it. Would welcome other interpretations and reads on that, including on the validity of pattern measurement in an indicator. And a big point in the bull's favor: Ralph Makempoorer does not think we've put in a bottom. The worst big-name technician I know of the last few years. A better contrary indicator than Cramer. That's all from here.