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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (14766)	4/19/2001 9:19:20 PM
From: Paul A	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30051

JRI, I just apologized to the folks over on the yahoo site regarding my semi posts so I guess I should do the same here.. to be very honest? Im stunned.. I have lived through the dot.com days, and saw all the insanity.. and I also know that semi stocks are extremely volatile, and move ahead of news or alot of times they just move in a very difficult to predict fashion.. but for the life of me, I never imagin AMAT breaking out over 60, or CCMP attempting to hit a 52wk high. CCMP reports next week, and considering the PE and the double in price, one has to wonder if the warning they gave last month will be retracted!!! Bottom line my friend- Memory prices are lousy.. They are sitting at the lows once again, and this week we saw erosion across the board- sdram and flash.. Rambus memory is dropping, and so is 512 and 1 gig.. I have heard of nothing but uncertaintity going forward, and the only positives are the people who are speculating that the next 2 quarters should start showing signs of recovery.. Based on nothing more then speculation rather than anything factual.. so there you have it.. My opinion still stands, and I think this market is out of control.. but if we continue to break out into mondays close, Ill cover all my shorts and trust the TA over the FA.. Right now the TA is saying that the bears are finished and we have hit a bottom across the board, especially the semis.. Im not much of a TA person, but I notice that even the best of them leave a few days/hundred points for margin of error.. one small opinion if anyone is still listening to my sorry ass :) If im right, and the recovery is NOT around the corner? and this rally is based in large part by short covering being induced by the big boys? The next leg down to 1600-1700 on the nasdaq is going to happen in days/hours rather than the slow relentless Chinese torture we have seen over the last few months.. but right now I have to lean in the direction that my observations are incorrect, and we HAVE in fact hit a bottom in the semis/manufacturing sector.. This is based entirely on TA.. but what can I say.. On the positive side..if the semis reached a bottom ill be making some nice commission checks this summer.. so I guess im sorta hedged, eh?? Nasdaq 6000 cmon baby! letsee if we can get there by June 1..