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To: JRI who wrote (96606)	4/19/2001 9:29:32 PM
From: GraceZ	Respond to of 436258

As a good friend of mine likes to say: How smart people can get is finite, how stupid they can get is unbounded. The money flow in the Naz bottomed March 29-30 and started back up before prices. It flowed out starting last Wed-Thursday and every day this week. That doesn't mean it will continue to flow out. If enough of those hedge funds that were making a living shorting continue to experience severe pain they may start to cover. If I had to guess I don't think they will have to, that after tomorrow we will see some rushing to book profits. You could already see that happen to a certain extent in issues that had good runs last week, like ITWO. It collapsed this morning and then came back to life this afternoon when it was clear this beast of a market wasn't going down and the GAME was on. Blocks were flying by on the buy side so it wasn't just the speculating public. Nobody panics like a money manager from a big mufu. There was some panic buying today. Do I want to be in it? No. I want to buy things that don't collapse in four minutes and for that to happen the stocks have to put in work. They have to bottom and retest the bottom, put in bases in other words. OTOH it wasn't that long ago that most of this stuff that was flying today was collapsing in price every single day. The percentages look twice as big going up to the same price level then they looked going down. So how much of the wholesale selling that we saw at quarter end was just silliness on the downside? I saw issues whose stock price was twice the cash they had on hand or less. But then if you want to know what I really think check my message to Allan earlier.....I reserve the right to be wrong on all accounts. -g-

To: JRI who wrote (96606)	4/19/2001 10:02:28 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

JRI, regarding consumer spending -- I know you've probably heard this story before, but worth noting if you haven't. Tonight on NPR they talked again about Bush's tax cuts in TX and how they were awash in revenues a couple of years ago, but not now -- two culprits -- much lower sales tax revenues and rising medical costs. Apparently Texas is not the only state aghast at their sudden reversal of fortunes among states that depend on sales tax as a significant part of their tax revenues .... Three things are coming together right now and making the consumer hit the wall -- 1) very rapidly rising cost of living -- everyone here knows that BLS lies and/or excludes energy and food in their price inflation measures, 2) despite this two-day old party people are not feeling as rich and won't feel so, even if it should last a few more weeks and 3) most can't take on any more debt. They are at their limits ... This is not a blip and it is not reversible. Lots of folks are thinking about something gradual happening here. It isn't possible ... done with the rant I'm going on vacation. This party should be over by the time I get back ... Have fun and be careful.