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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chuck Williams who wrote (75569)	4/19/2001 11:17:36 PM
From: bobby beara	Respond to of 99985

larry mcmillan Stock Market A lot has happened in the last three weeks. First, the market bottomed on March 22nd and then had a pretty good rally -- taking $OEX up to 606 (remember that number), $SPX to 1183, and the Dow up to 9940. At that time, only a "V" bottom was in place and severe bear markets never end in a "V" bottom; a re-test is always required. The markets quickly gave up those gains, selling off to new closing (but not intraday) lows on April 4th. This selloff took the oscillator back below 200, thereby canceling its buy signal. In a similar fashion, $VIX rose back to its highs, and the put-call ratios went to new highs all actions that canceled the short-lived buy signals mentioned in the previous paragraph. The move to new highs by the equity-only put-call ratios left a low that is marked with an "s" on the above charts. At that time, the markets stabilized and rallied again, with the oscillator registering another buy signal and $VIX doing the same. Meanwhile, the put-call ratios were not able to fall into line right away, but now they are close to giving another buy signal as well (see rightmost points on above charts). In fact, the computer projections are saying that buy signals are in place. This most recent rally had the effect of leaving a "W" formation on the charts a powerful bullish formation if it is completed. A similar "W" (albeit upside down) can be seen on the $VIX chart. If prices break out above the high point (the middle of the "W"), then that would complete the confirmation that a powerful bullish, intermediate-term buy signal is in place. Without that, we would just be in a trading range one in which the "W" may just be the first part of what proves to be a trading range (between roughly 550 and 606 on $OEX, for example). As you can see, prices have already broken out on the Dow chart, and $OEX confirmed by closing at 608 today (Thursday). As for other major put-call ratios, there are buy signals in the $OEX weighted ratio, both the normal and weighted S&P 500 futures option ratios, the QQQ weighted ratio, and (according to the computer) the NASDAQ-100 ($NDX) weighted ratio. *************************************************** ottographs.com this is a equity only p/c m/a chart linked almost a month ago showing a nice five wave down count from the march top - with a third wave extension into december, from the "ask us" thread. in a stoopid speculator market that has nothing to do with fundamentals (or loosely related to) all you can go on is sentiment and knowing that the masses are wrong at the margin.