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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: maverick61 who wrote (50842)	4/20/2001 1:33:29 AM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57584

Ease up Maverick. I don't care if anyone listens. And what good was technical analysis in predicting this big rally? It's just my stab at common sense and gut feeling. Of course I was wrong last year, but then again I wasn't paying attention. I hadn't learned to look at earnings, market caps, cash, debt and also get a feel for the underlying mood of the world out there. I didn't start doing that until I was very concerned and hurt badly. In January was when I woke up. My prediction is merely that we'll retrace about 35% of what was lost last year (except some tech dogs will double or triple) and that value not hype will be the major consideration. Speculations on the growth value of the future will be considered too but not nearly so much as the last few years. Feel free to make your own predictions as well. For what they're worth. Like those other threads where people "guess which stocks will double". I got them wrong last year but maybe this time I'm right. Anyway, I'm going to trade this plan until something changes to convince me otherwise. You trade by your plan, whatever that is. But it's nice to at least have a plan. Last year I didn't even have a plan. I went for value before it was fashionable and got killed when a few tech dogs I held collapsed. I bought on the way down and kept having to struggle just to break even. Only VZ saved me from being wiped out. My only mistakes recently though were in being too cautious. So things have changed. It pays to buy the dips again and to buy at market sometimes not be so cheap. Everyone talks about technical indicators, and I don't pretend to understand Fibonacchi numbers and Bollinger Bands and all that, but I have yet to see any technician explain to me why or when the market's going up or down. The closest I heard wan an explanation of how some big houses were buying calls about three weeks ago right before the rally. Was that a giveaway? Not to me. I wasn't convinced until the Big Lie on the LU bankruptcy. That's when I recognized the bottom because it was the flip side of the top when they were calling for QCOM to 1000 and upgrading YHOO at 250. I knew that was absurd then just as I knew the Lu rumor was absurd now. Unfortunately I didn't act on it last year because I don't short and I wasn't paying enough attention to the signs. But this time I acted on it and in my own small way helped sound the alarm. I don't really care if you agree with me at all. In fact I'd rather not have that responsibility. What is someone loses listening to me? I don't want to be blamed. Do everyone make your own predictions if you can. This is just mine and I'm betting it's pretty accurate. Maybe even right on the money. Even if it's just a lucky guess.