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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (39217)	4/30/2001 1:45:34 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

Today from a recent article in a leading publication..are they reading 'Idea thread??' Little too much of similarities.. <Many folks have compared the NASDAQ’s recent bear run to that of the Japanese Nikkei. The Nikkei chart shows much like the recent NASDAQ chart…although to get the similarity, the time scale must be squeezed by a factor of 10X. The Nikkei took nearly 10 years to do what the NASDAQ accomplished in one.> Idea thread on 9th April in a response to Jtech queries.. <<, ,.... in this situation if consumer demand continues than no way that market that SPX may linger on like Nikkei, I think the very reason that huge adjustment in levels was made within 6 months in the tech sector shows the eagerness of investors to punish the laggards, Nikkei did not come from its highs to its lows in 18 months, even from 36000 plus to 16000 journey took far more time.. Jan 1990-Jan 1993, finance.yahoo.com^N225&d=my>> ... The leading guru further writes.... <We believe the situation in Japan and the situation in the US are quite different, however, and the charts will again diverge. Here’s why: Just after “The Big One”, WWII, US GIs came home to the open arms (sic) of their waiting women and produced babies at a prodigious rate for a great number of years. Good thing, too, because they made me! But I digress… About 50 years later, the US is in a period of general robust growth in productivity, wages, wealth, etc. The Baby Boomers are in their prime and we should have several more years of “prime” to go (despite the inevitable bumps in the road). Conversely, the Japanese soldier, if he was lucky enough to return through the maelstrom of ridiculous casualty rates and ‘no surrender’ policies, came home to a Japan decimated by nearly 13 years of war effort, round the clock bombing, and the disastrous effect of two atomic blasts… What ensued was not a baby boom, but rather a baby bust. Japan is at the trough of their productivity curve…just as we reach our peak in the US…the population in Japan is widely made up of the young and the old…with a relative paucity of workers in their peak years in between…we believe this is a partial explanation for the deflation of the Japanese economy. Ponder it!> Message #39217 from IQBAL LATIF at Apr 20, 2001 7:11 AM Demographic trivia between Japan and US, a key difference..falling population V/S a population that increasing .. The reason that Japan consumer demand is dropping and US is increasing is becasue of US demographic growth.. that is one reason Nikkei is not Nazdaq..