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Strategies & Market Trends : Drillbits & Bottlerockets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Poet who wrote (8572)	4/20/2001 10:04:18 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15481

LOL........ I have a story to tell you about that.... but it's more of a weekend story. The USD broke down from it's uptrend yesterday and 1 thing I notice each of the 4 tops since last nov near 118 have been lower... not a lot lower from the previous top but lower. I have studies thousands of commodity charts over the years and sometimes that's a big tell when you are at a resistance point but it's not really a horizontal line but a descending one. just something to keep and eye on . The Brazilian Real also is selling off to new all time lows, as the central bank raises rates 50 points to 16.25 and Argentinian bonds are falling off a cliff. so some things to pay attention to.

To: Poet who wrote (8572)	4/20/2001 10:27:06 AM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15481

Hi Poet, Random thoughts time (completely unrelated to your message) In this message, I speculated that much of the problem that we have been having in the market in the past year was related to excessive Y2K spending. Message 15614097 If my speculation has any merit, is it possible that the cyclicality of spending in tech was exaggerated on the downside as well? And would this imply that we are going to have another exaggerated increase in spending as equipment/software purchased in the final 2 quarters of 1999 becomes outdated? At my previous employer, PCs/Laptops were upgraded every 18 months. But because of Y2K everyone received a new PC/Laptop in the second half of 1999. Normally, the distribution of PCs/Laptops would have been smoothed out over the entire year....actually 18 months, but the cycle was compressed into about a 6 month window on the acquisition side, but the obsolescence cycle remained at 18 months. Coupled with the economic situation, I imagine that a few companies probably decided to draw out the upgrade cycle by an additional 6 months...that means that we would just be coming up to the start of the new cycle in spending in the next few months. And if the market looks forward.... Just a thought.