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To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (96771)	4/20/2001 12:53:54 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 436258

that's a crucial point...as discussed previously, this downturn differs from the run-of-the-mill post WW2 cycle represented by their rough clock. a very simple way to look at it is by looking at the size and duration of the boom preceding the slump: a long disinflation boom during which overcapacities and debt accumulate in unusually large measure has historically always resulted in a prolonged bust. if one believes the autumn of the K wave has just ended, or is about to end, the conclusion would be that the bust will be extraordinarily long and deep.