To: Shack who wrote (538 ) 4/20/2001 1:33:38 PM From: John Madarasz Respond to Charlie Hustle...<g>there have been only four other periods where the New York Stock Exchange 10 day moving average of the tick was above plus 500. The last time it occurred was January 10th of this year. That signal was somewhat premature because the market continued to rally for the next three weeks. The time before that, however, occurred on November 6th when the 10 day moving average moved above 500 for two consecutive days. That day was the exact high on the S&P cash, a high that has not been approached since then. Prior to that, you have to go back over a year to find the next time period with a 10 day tick higher than +500. It occurred on August 20th, August 23rd, and August 24th of 1999. The top in that time period occurred one day later on August 25th. It was followed by a decline of greater than 10% on the S&P cash. Prior to that, the next 500 + tick moving average began on July 20, 1999 and lasted for six days through July 26th. Interestingly enough, the high in that time period occurred on July 19th, one day before the first + 500 tick moving average. The history of the past two years has suggested that any time the 10 day moving average of the tick on the New York Stock Exchange moves above plus 500, the market has moved into dangerous territory.The Open 10 TRIN closed today at .753, the most overbought reading since the 0.750 reading on March 22nd, 2000, two days before the all time high on the S&P 500 cash index. As you can see, there is strong evidence that we are in the area of a top in a bear market rally. stockmarketcycles.com
