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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (9758)	4/20/2001 3:37:09 PM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 10921

Richard, Things won't improve in a few months. I suspect it's probably another 2-3 Qs before the first signs of improvement become noticeable, with improved earnings reports a Q later. But the Fed has sent a clear message that it won't let the economy slip into a prolonged recession if it can do anything to prevent that outcome. So the shorts are on notice. At most they've got another 4-6 months to enjoy themselves. IMO, Ian.

To: Math Junkie who wrote (9758)	4/21/2001 7:48:13 AM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

It's a one hand vs. the other thing. One the one hand, business conditions look pathetic and there's a complete lack of visibility '...leaving plenty of room for skepticism on the part of investors.' as you correctly surmise. On the other hand, investing 1. contrary to the fed, in the wake of 4 rate cuts in 4 months, and 2. contrary to a now de-inverted yield curve, signaling a recovery in 4-6 months....investing contrary to these slap-in-the face indicators would be borderline foolishness if not reckless. Many folks who are claiming 'this is a good time to sell the equips' pounded the table with similar mantras in early December. Has anyone checked back on this thread? Has anyone noticed most equipment stocks are 50 -100% higher than early December? Many folks appear to be willing to fight the fed and the bond market. Many folks want to explain away the rally as 'relief' or 'bounce from oversold' etc. Any explanation but the most obvious: the market is watching an extremely aggressive fed slashing rates with the knowledge that in almost every prior case this jump-starts the economy with vigor. Fight an extremely aggressive fed? Be my guest! ---------------- As I've said numerous times, the title of this thread has a great deal of wisdom in it; the difficulty will always lie with investors acknowledging when blood is BLOOD. We were told to wait 4-6 months in December. Four months later, we're being told wait 4-6 more months. Meanwhile, those who have waited have already missed a decent run. The equipment sector bottomed in December. The rally will continue throughout the rest of this year. There could not be a worse time to sell the equipment stocks.