To: michael97123 who wrote (45681 ) 4/21/2001 4:25:25 PM From: John Trader Respond to Michael, I think that being bullish long term, and also having a buy and hold approach is in general a good strategy for stock investing. It is a bit more tricky in technology of course, as things change so quickly (including market multiples), but if one stays with the higher quality companies like AMAT, I think buy and hold will work just fine over time. I am reminded of a recent guest on Wall Street Week who has a long term buy and hold approach with INTC, for example. This has paid off very well for him so far at least. I also think that all of us probably have difficulty focusing on the long term, as almost all news is short term in nature. I recall Peter Lynch having said that he just ignores market cycles completely and just looks for good companies to own (from his book, One Up On Wall Street). I don't think one should ignore valuation, but to try to predict the multiple the market will assign at any given time is difficult, to say the least (e.g. the minimum P/S ratio for AMAT). Having said all that, I did a bit of trading this year which was profitable overall, and I am impressed by the efforts of several on this thread at timing AMAT in the last few months. Also, following this AMAT thread has helped my trading efforts be successful. I think the more volatile the market is, the more that a trading approach will work, but I think it is still a tough game to play. My view is more bullish now than before due to the recent Fed rate cut, recent technical arguments for a bottom (e.g. Arms index argument, and general bearish sentiment), the call by J. Joseph on semis (he nailed it last year at least), and due to just the magnitude of this advance. It looks like more than just short covering to me, however I hope the panelist on WSW last night is right in that we get another test before the indices "never look back". Her advice is to buy in during such a pullback.
