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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (45690)	4/21/2001 12:11:56 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

"XLNX growing at -20% from bubble induced revenue levels and sporting a 85 PE might indicate that the bubble is alive and kicking. " Cary, You may be right or anticipation of the next upturn(non-bubble) may have the floor in already. The question for investors is where will we be in a couple of years, not whether bottom has been but in here or not. I do not believe that this rally will fail like the January rally did. There we went back and tested old lows and failed. I also dont think looking at PE ratios here necessarily gives us a correct view of the markets. PE's go up when earnings go down. What is being analysed now is what growth rates different tech stocks will grow out and what future pe's will be justified. Chip strength indicates a belief that there will be robust growth down the road and although they may have gotten ahead of themselves here, another test of the lows may be unrealistic to expect. In any case, at some point in the future quality co's like amat will be significantly higher than they are now. You timed the market successfully in your recent trades but you might regret selling your non-trading shares of amat and nvls down the road. At that point I will be ahead of you. THIS is not a prediction--it's just one of many possibilities out there. I would not be upset down the road if you got a second chance to buy amat and nvls because long term we will be holding at the new highs. But I would think you would be upset if you didnt get back in or got back in at higher prices. I know you indicated that nasdaq would have a tough time or a long time to get back to 5K and I agree. However, many stocks will make new highs in a shorter time span. Our job is to be in those stock with most of our investments. mike