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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (45701)	4/21/2001 10:09:06 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

RE: "Maybe they are exempt because they're cyclical." They are cyclical in GOOD times, i.e. most of the last 19 years. In bad times, well, they haven't really been tested. If "there's little shock value in AMAT going to 30", then you can be certain that 30 will not be the bottom. To throw a monkey wrench into the long term bull case, the current fabrication process is running up against a wall which will prevent it from meeting Moore's law. Necessity is the mother of invention, so new processes will arise to continue meeting Moore's law. It is not likely that the $20B leader of the old regime will lead in the new and it is hard to replace $20B revenues. Remember, technology isn't Coca-cola, it is change. In the early 1980s, $50B IBM geared up to reach $100B revenues in the next 5 years. I believe IBM did $21B this past quarter.