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To: pbull who wrote (12878)4/21/2001 12:36:23 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 13572
 
Fed cuts lead to renewed belief in 2ndHalf Recovery scenario
but such kneejerk mental process leads to renewed whacking
this rally is ready and primed for some profitaking
the real world is nowhere near ready for this written recovery
nothing like some relatively rarified air to induce more selling
still a bear, just making some money on the rally

big debate now is whether we are preparing for a cyclical bull or secular bull
to many, they say WHO CARES?
to which I say, YOU BETTER CARE UNLESS YOU WANT A REPEAT OF LAST YEAR

where do you stand?
I say cyclical bull
we got a tough 2-3 years ahead generally
sure, some strong pockets
my faves theoretically: wireless, fiberopt, fuelcell

what about you?
/ jw



To: pbull who wrote (12878)4/21/2001 5:56:23 PM
From: pbull  Respond to of 13572
 
Re bank lending:

Disclaimer: This is from Dreyfus high-yield bond analysts, so consider the source.

According to a report by the Federal Reserve, 59.7% of senior loan bank officers have tightened their lending requirements, up from 43.8%. As such, companies will face liquidity pressure in the coming months. Further, said pressures should cause an increase in the default rate. The ratings agency Moody's forecasts a default rate of 9.5% by year-end 2001 and 9.6% by February 2002.


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