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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: flint who wrote (51949)	4/21/2001 11:35:58 AM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77397

Hi Flint - I didn't mean to imply you were that early. Actually, we pegged it at 2001-2002... so maybe sometime in the next 6-18 months. FYI. I am using 2010 because even the rabid bulls can't deny the numbers in that timeframe. But why I pull it in earlier is because of the concentration of wealth in the bow-wave. The older boomers or those who have kept up with them and those who exited in the last two years hold a preponderance of quality wealth. Those still in hold wealth of inferior quality that will need to be liquidated and exchanged. This will happen IMHO at or near NASD 3300 plus or minus 600 or so. Rate of money flow into the markets could peg us at inflection point later this year. This time I think the bias will be to leave money on the table and bail early rather than get caught late. Not saying there isn't money to be made in the interim pop... just that it should come from the "speculation" pot, not the "pension" pot. John

To: flint who wrote (51949)	4/21/2001 3:39:05 PM
From: RetiredNow	Respond to of 77397

As you should know, worth is a very fragile concept. You may be doing a DCF analysis and decide that Cisco is worth $10 today and I would agree with you in that context. But the market is telling us both that Cisco is worth $19. So who do you believe? I believe the market, because that's what I can sell my shares for today. If you want to believe your DCF, sell me your shares for $10, I'd willingly buy them from you. So my point is, that there are too may people, including big money, that are enamored with this stock. So don't be surprised if 12 months from now the market tells you that Cisco is worth $40, a double from here, and I guarantee you the company will still not be paying dividends. Sorry to disappoint you, but that's life. Always disappointing the disillusioned.