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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rob C. who wrote (51960)	4/21/2001 2:43:10 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

I, too, believe that the secular bull market which began in 1980, is still intact. There are many who now think we are facing a decade like the 1930s, or the 1990s in Japan. I don't find those arguments convincing. However, I also believe that we are in cyclical bear market, which began in 4/98 for Old Economy stocks, and 4/00 for techs. This bear, IMO, was initially driven by falling capital spending by businesses. It will continue to be driven by an upcoming downturn in consumer spending, which has barely begun. IMO, we have 2-4 quarters of negative GDP growth in front of us. After that, the secular bull market will resume. It's quite possible that stocks have set their lows recently, for this bear market. But, we are in for an extended period (at least till the end of 2001, perhaps till the end of 2002), where stocks are very volatile, with no net upward movement. That is, those lows need to be restested, at least once. And any rallies are likely to be given back. I was 100% long the market when the market bottomed early this month (as I posted at the time). Once the SOX was 30% off its lows, I started steadily selling long positions, and steadily buying put LEAPs. As of today, I am still net long the market. However, if this rally lasts another few weeks, I will steadily shift my stance. If the SOX hits 750 (the January top), I will likely be net short the market. You are right, that a lot of charts look like they've had their bottoming formation, and just had a breakout to the upside. I'm making the bet (and that's the proper word for it), that this chart pattern is a headfake, because (and again, this is a bet) the fundamentals won't support this rally, so it will be given back. If I'm wrong, I'll lose money.