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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (14871)	4/21/2001 4:43:32 PM
From: Mike M	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

. I believe we are in a relatively lengthy process of changing market psychology (see my post from last April on that subject exactly) with each cyclical bull in the next few years ending up with metrics that are lower than the prior one. Zeev, I agree. It is difficult to imagine that folks who have weathered the carnage of this most recent market would bet what is left of the farm on another "mania" a year later... Granted we have not gone through the Great Depression but the folks who did never forgot the lesson and invested and saved accordingly. Some may well feel like they have experienced their own version of a depression by the disappearance of a significant part of their net worth. Many will take this lesson to heart; enough to insure that we won't see another market like we did in 1999/2000 for a long time. It is difficult to imagine earnings turnaround in the next 12 months which would promulgate the kind of confidence necessary to send this market into orbit. I don't question for a minute that the ongoing expansion of the money supply will sustain a significant rally and many will believe that we are at the beginnings of a new bull market. But I just don't see it.