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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (14876)	4/21/2001 4:45:52 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 30051

Absolutely incredible is the word that best describes it. I am not sure at this time if it will indeed peak as early as April 2000, it may very well take another full year, as corporate America likes to say nowadays "lack of visibility". A number of parameters will come into play, including tax policies, east Asia handling the current slow down without any catastrophic dislocation (or not), the extent of our own trade deficit and budget surplus etc. Too many of these are still in flux. By the way, the size of the move is going to look even more grandiose, once you realize that an October low probably means a breach of the 1620 area all the way to my multi year target of 1400 on the Naz. Furthermore, you must take into account that the turnips have a tendency to be over optimistic. At the low last May 28th, they had a monster summer rally (we got it from around 3000 to 4300, a very respectable move), but the turnips thought that rally will go all the way to just under 5000, a miss of a good 700 Naz points. Not that it matter much if you were on the right side of the fence for most of the ride...So, they may be over optimistic for next year as well, nevertheless, even if we top around 3050 or so (my first major overhead resistance for that future move), being on the right side of the track might be very helpful. Zeev