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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marek_wojna who wrote (68081)	4/22/2001 1:59:51 AM
From: E. Charters	Respond to of 116759

Gold is a great speculation if the price is going up a great short if the price is going down. The trick is to know which is which. If it is purely volatile then it is a great straddle. Of course what isn't? Sooo... would you bet on it going up or down? Downside doesn't look that strong really given all the signs. 270 is possible but its a yin ya yin ya sort of thing. What we need is a good non-linear predictor like Claude Shannon used to make his money on the market back then. Some mathematicians are now saying that the random walk theory is wrong, that markets or any cycle with sufficient history can be predicted by a method akin to digital signal processing. Basically, your modem would not work if non linear trends could not be safely predicted. There was not enough computing horsepower in the entire United States to work out the stock market by these processes in the 1930's. Today there is more than enough in box you are reading this with now. Kondratiev was right. 55 to 70 year cycles are operative. ******************************** What is a goombah sort of walk in the park, and this is no kidding, is producing gold. Really. The reason is if you can be average predictive of price and really accurate at predicting engineering costs (a real possibility even including overruns and emergency draw downs) then you can accurately predict your profit for years ahead. It's almost boring! Few other business in the world, from dresses to donut shops to Zebra farms can do that. For most businesses consumption and marketing (sales) is just too unpredictable. But gold is solid as a rock. It always sells. So what formula would one follow in these dreary price days? Well, low capital cost, quick to production, high grade, and quick payback. Even at low interest rates this makes sense. If people are fixated on price alone they don't get the formula. Most 'investors' look at one thing. Sell paper. Few look at making money. That is supposed to be a myth. But the big boys don't sell paper or sell ground. They mine it. And they all got big by mining it. And not all (really none) got that way by starting big either. If you want a comfortable predictor, remember Lakeshore Gold Mines, the mine that made Harry Oakes the richest man in the world. It ran at 0.50 ounces per ton. It went to $65.00 per share in 1929 after the crash. EC<:-}