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Strategies & Market Trends : Visit Mr. Elliott. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: macavity who wrote (11)	4/22/2001 12:54:34 PM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 656

First, the waves… The A-B-C in the COMPX and the NAZ100 will need to correct the entire 5 wave decline from the March 2000 high. Interestingly, the Jan ’01 high is at about a 38% retracement level. I think that the unfolding big A-B-C, being of the same order as the entire 5 wave down move, should retrace at least that much, and may even try higher, for a 50%, closer to the May 2000 bottom of wave 1. It should not, of course, overlap that level too much. If it does, the odds would increase that we are off into a serious new Bull. On the other hand, if it does not even make it to the Jan ’01 level, this Bull is one sick puppy. We’ll see. (Incidentally, the QQQ’s are now at the 23.6% retracement from the early September high, and not too far from 50% retr. of the decline from the Jan.24 high; points to a bit more resistance…). Books… I am re-reading Prechter’s “Tidal Wave” now. The book has a great amount of wisdom, and at the same time, it is a monument to his mistake of a lifetime. He makes a well argumented case that The Great top was about to occur – in the mid-90’s. Interesting that you mention believing more in your technicals than ideas. It is great to be a market philosopher, as long as one keeps the philosophy and the “investrading” separately. I know I should read more of Prechter, but lately I am not uncomfortable with my market calls, and I would almost try to avoid being influenced by anyone too much, and Bob is a very persuasive writer. I’ll get back to him when I have more time and energy. Interesting week ahead… The market will be difficult… If it takes a little “conspiracy” type of thinking to play it, why not! Regards, AK