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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: longdong_63 who wrote (31771)	4/22/2001 1:20:08 PM
From: eichler	Respond to of 100058

longdong, flack, iowamann, Thank you all very much for the welcome back and greetings. I'm feeling much better and the pain has diminished to tolerable levels. I've never before really had problems coping with pain, but I think the duration was wearing on me (day and night, weeks non-stop). Also, the location (my head, so close to home...) of the pain was impossible to disassociate and block out. Anyway, I feel I'm pretty much done with the worst and really ready to leave the memory of it behind. I would again like to compliment you and the rest of the crew of Ask Dr. Bob for the friendly, family-like atmosphere which prevails on this thread. Not only are you folks a group of kick-butt traders, you're real human beings as well. Virtually absent are the insults flung about and chest-beating of the competitors for King-Of-The-Hill which has turned me off to some of the other threads I've haunted. I'm really looking forward to participating here once again and hope I can provide beneficial, worthwhile insights to add into the mix. Gongo- you're observation of the bios is right on. I too have been watching this group but see it is not quite ready to join the party...its' turn will come. Meanwhile, the technology group is where the action is, and not yet played out. Look for issues that are beginning their moves, shy away from those whose prices have already tripled or made HUGE % gains so far. Not that they can't go higher; they will be more susceptible to profit-taking and re-testing of lows from a risk point of view. I think it's quite possible for the big gainers to be taken down a notch while simultaneously others whose turn has come make their moves. I will be watching the $compx (60 minute chart) for a rising wedge formation and breakdown. As long as the wedge remains intact, I believe money will flow from stocks which made big moves to stocks just beginning. When the wedge breaks, I will stand aside and evaluate re-entries into the corrected issues. I think shorting is dangerous at this point and requires the discipline to take quick profits while they are there. I believe Dr. Bob recently posted that trading action during this period will be three to four days up, one to two days down which is exactly what I'm thinking. Not a good trading environment for the short mind-set. I've read good discussion on the feasibility of sustained up action in a weakening economy. Do not be overwhelmed by the magnitude of recent up moves (hundreds of % in many cases), and remember from what levels these stocks tumbled from. Many stocks that have made big moves up are still a fraction of their prices at the peak of the bubble mania levels Spring 2000. Price action is governed more by market psychology than arbitrary, changing measuring sticks of value. Right now, the psychology is changing from everything is overvalued (even if they are), to everything has been beaten down way too far. Do not underestimate the power of 2 trillion on the sidelines and the itching to put that money to work now that the fed has lowered 4 successive occasions and weekly, monthly $compx charts support higher prices ahead. Greed is some mighty powerful stuff and the more the market recovers, the more people will fear missing out on the fun. 2400-2500 looks easy near-term and 3000 (and higher) $compx looks quite attainable to me on the charts mid-term. Also, I do not rule out another ridiculous run-up as the consensus decides a new bull has been born. Let's have some fun and make some dough! Best Regards, Eichler One very positive aspect of the weekly $compx chart I am closely watching is potential positive divergence on the weekly stochastics, namely that the downtrend of the stochastics (trendlines are very telling on these too) from the spring 2000 top to the April 2001 bottom is a hair away from breaking to the upside! I think that should signal weeks of up action to come. Also, the 38% retrace back up on the weekly rests somewhere around 2900. 50% around 3350, 62% close to 3850. In other words, plenty of room above from here. I'm ready!!