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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (20164)	4/22/2001 1:42:21 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 60323

Art, I acknowledge your insight into the company and its industry. You have been one of the few who's been right all the way up on this stock. I like that you can give both positive and negative aspects and implications in your analyses here before you weigh in with a current outlook. I don't have any earnings and revenue projections, and maybe that is really what's required. Because looking back over the last few years, the company has not delivered bottom line performance to justify its stock price -- imo. stocksheet.com Going from 88M to 700M in revenues, the company can't seem to bring down more than 43c/sh per year to the bottom line.(excluding the special gains good year). I have no confidence in the analysts' estimates of .75 for 2002. Maybe the company is purposely weighing more heavily on balance in investing and developing the potential of its technology and patents and deals than it is in showing earnings performance. If that's so, then my conclusion is that we are both right. Those like you who can evaluate the likelihood of success of SNDK's activities may very well see SNDK as undervalued and may be totally proven right over the next year or years. The stock could rise as others come into it based on its potential -- that might happen way before there's earnings improvement. And I'm right for me in reducing my position: I can tag along with you all, but I'm too focused on the rear view mirror to see how or when this potential will be acknowledged in the market.

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (20164)	4/23/2001 6:13:59 AM
From: Tumbleweed	Respond to of 60323

Art, re your analysis of Sandisk... ...unfortunately (for the longs here), I agree 100% with you. One of the reasons I held Sandisk was the IP rights, which made Sandisk somewhat unique, but now seems to have been very much sidelined. So, though I think longer term that Sandisk will have good growth prospects, I dont see it being stellar or getting back to 160 for a very long time. FWIW, I also dont think much of the Data Plays and other similar imitators. The drop in flash must have severly dented their prospects. I am sure their business cases were put together when flash was 3x or 4x the cost today, with no quick price drop in prospect.* The other factor that doesnt help is all the competing formats. I dont see any sign of consolidation over the next year or two. Pity that Sandisk couldnt have done a deal with Sony (if such was ever on offer), so we are going to have 3 or 4 different formats confusing the hell out of consumers for the next 2 years at least. I will hold on the basis that the price at the moment is a good one, and growth prospects are good, but I dont expect more than 30% a year tops. I suppose thats pretty good really, we've all been spoiled by the last couple of years :-) Tw * for anyone who doubts that investment firms can make these kind of mistakes, just look at Iridium (and its competitors). They based their business case on pricing and technology of the mid 80's, and completely missed the huge drops in price, and growth in coverage, of the networks over the next 10 years. Those guys spent billions, but seemed to get wrapped up in momentum and never re-evaluated and said 'is our business modek still valid'. Since one of dataplays key USPs seems to be 'cheaper than flash' I wonder if they have done that re-evaluation? Or are so far down the treadmill of spending and marketing that they will carry on regardless?