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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Psycho-Social who wrote (75703)	4/22/2001 10:50:44 PM
From: Dave Kiernan	Respond to of 99985

psysocmarper, Just finished looking at a Nas chart back to 1990, last two weeks are the strongest in this time period. Bear Markets supposed to have explosive rallys and the past two weeks beats any two week time frame in the past 11 years. Maybe some overshoot this week, but much lower close by Friday than this weeks high is my best estimate. stockcharts.com[w,a]weclyimy[d19990101,20010501][pb50!b13!a2252!a1619][vc60][iLo14!Lm12!Ll14!Lh39,1]

To: Psycho-Social who wrote (75703)	4/22/2001 11:45:08 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Short Term Forecast: Don't forget a rate cut in three weeks. I say we rally bumpily right through it but that we do it in tiers. The first tier move is almost complete. The second tier is halfway along. The third tier has barely begun and the fourth tier is defensive tech value stocks like Baby Bells and the last is purely defensive stocks like energy. I am buying tech dogs which haven't moved and big telcos which haven't moved. Anything tech which hasn't rallied yet is almost a sure thing to follow now. That's the way it was in early January and this rally is stronger. Possible we could get ahead of ourselves so profit-taking can be in order on any given day but it will be met by bargain buying. Until May 15th at least I think we're fine on the long side and any zealous short will have to be very lucky with his picks and quick to cover to survive. Therefore I'd buy into bad news drops and any concentrated shorting action for the next three weeks, like with ERICY on bad news day last week when it popped back 30% from its daily low. That would have been a great day trade. Long term (by winter) I see almost all tech stocks doubling from their recent lows. The small companies will multiply 2-4 tiems. The biggest will only get 50% or so but they will average a double as a group. Many of them already have done this or are halfway there so I think my guess is conservative. By fourth quarter the recovery will be clear and low rates will be doing their magic. By then shorts will be history.