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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (36161)4/25/2001 12:27:21 AM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 65232
 
From the Investor's Business Daily Website...

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Wednesday, April 25, 2001

Interest Rate Cut, For Now, Just Psychological Boost

By Antonio A. Prado

Investor's Business Daily -- Internet & Technology

<<Last week’s surprise interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve gave the battered tech economy a big psychological boost.

Cutting the benchmark fed funds target rate another half a percentage point, for a total of two percentage points since January, is supposed to boost the economy by making money cheaper to borrow.

Much of the capital spending that drives the economy is done through borrowing. And a lot of that spending is in technology.

But until the economy picks up, the rate cut may be little more than a temporary morale booster for firms like DSET Corp. of Bridgewater, N.J. Many of the business-to-business e-commerce software firm’s clients have put off their purchases due to jitters about the slowing economy.

The result was the second straight quarterly loss after several quarters of strong double-digit year-over-year earnings growth.

Fed policy-makers targeted the interest rate cuts to CEOs of firms that buy technology like DSET’s, says David Orr, chief economist at First Union Corp. in Charlotte, N.C.

The Fed wants them to spend again to give the economy a boost, he says.

"In effect, they were saying to those CEOs, ‘We will do our part to boost economic growth, and we hope that now you will feel more comfortable about doing your part,’ " Orr said.

Recent years’ huge gains in workers’ per-hour output helped the economy surge without sparking inflation. Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan hopes continued investment in tech will preserve those productivity gains.

But don’t look for tech spending to surge back right away. It takes six months to two years for the effects of Fed interest rate moves to play themselves out in the marketplace, economists note.

The slowdown we’re seeing now is the result of Fed rate increases that began in June 1999. Through May 2000, rates were raised a total of 1.75 percentage points.

Fed policy-makers had raised rates in hopes of staving off a perceived inflation threat by slowing the then-hot economy.

"There is ample evidence that the current slowdown can be traced to the disincentive effects of Fed policy," said economist R. David Ranson, president of H.C. Wainwright & Co. in Boston. Now that the Fed has cut interest rates, Ranson says firms and investors are waiting for them to drop even more. It’s widely expected that another 50 basis points will be cut as early as May.

But even after that, Ranson argues, firms will delay spending and investors will remain shy until they think rates will creep back up — then they’ll invest right before borrowing begins to become more expensive again.

But by waiting, they’re slowing today’s economy even more, Ranson says. He argues the economy would have come back on its own this year, since the Fed stopped raising rates last summer.

Even when the economy picks up, don’t look for another tech surge the likes of the 1998-2000 boom, says William Anderson, an economist at North Greenville (S.C.) College.

"Whatever good effects occurred when the Fed lowered interest rates in the past are not likely to be repeated in the near future," Anderson said.

Why? Because the Fed pumped too much money into the economy when it lowered rates in 1998. That easy money led to lots of bad investments and an inflated stock market, Anderson says.

"Many investment ‘opportunities’ that seemed so promising just a couple of years ago have turned sour," Anderson said.

So for now, both old and new economy firms are waiting for stronger signs that things won’t get worse. Many firms still have too much excess inventory. And profits have been squeezed due to fierce competition that has kept prices down.

"The question manufacturers must struggle with now involves when to restart operations," said Michael Swanson, an economist at Wells Fargo in Minneapolis.>>



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (36161)4/25/2001 1:02:32 AM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 65232
 
This may motivate The FED to cut rates further...

_________________________________________________
Consumer Confidence Tumbles in April

Tuesday April 24, 10:28 pm Eastern Time

By Ross Finley

<<NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence tumbled again in April as deteriorating business conditions and job insecurity soured March's more upbeat mood in a Tuesday report that cemented expectations for more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

The Conference Board said its broad index of consumer attitudes slid to 109.2 in April, matching a 4-1/2-year low hit in February, and compared to a downwardly revised 116.9 in March. The survey was conducted before the Fed's surprise half-

point interest rate cut last week.

Separate reports on weekly chain store sales told a different tale, with U.S. retailers meeting or beating their sales targets so far this month as warmer weather sent Americans into their minivans and out to the malls.

The drop in confidence in April was the sixth decline in seven months and the reading was weaker than the 112.0 forecast by economists in a Reuters poll.

``On balance, consumers are becoming more realistic about the job market,'' said Stan Shipley, senior economist at Merrill Lynch. ``While consumer appraisal of employment opportunities is still high, it has deteriorated sharply over the last six months.''

Analysts and Fed officials closely watch consumer confidence, particularly in times of economic uncertainty, because it can sometimes affect consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of economic growth.

Richmond Fed President Alfred Broaddus, speaking in Newport News, Virginia, on Tuesday night, called the drop in confidence a ''discouraging development.''

But the dip in confidence had little effect on financial markets because it did not alter expectations for at least another quarter-point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve at its May 15 meeting.

``This report is consistent with continued growth in consumer spending,'' Shipley said in a research note.

The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) closed down 77.89 points, or 0.74 percent, at 10,454.34, while the technology-weighted Nasdaq composite index (.IXIC), beaten down by earnings warnings, finished off 42.71 points, or 2.07 percent, at 2,016.61. In late trading, benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes were 9/32 lower, yielding 5.22 percent.

LAYOFF ANNOUNCEMENTS TAKING TOLL

Job market worries amid mounting corporate layoffs -- not stock market jitters -- accounted for most of the April fall, said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center.

Consumers' assessment of their present financial picture were grimmer than expectations for the future, she added.

``Consumers are rating current conditions less favorably than they have over the last several months, so the economy is still growing at a sluggish pace. And their expectations also have weakened,'' Franco told Reuters.

The expectations index on the economic outlook for the next six months fell to 78.2 in April from a downwardly revised 83.1 in March. The drop-off was more severe in the present situation index, which tumbled nearly 12 points to 155.6 from an upwardly revised 167.5 in March.

Franco said the present situation index, which was the lowest since October 1997, was ``certainly not near levels that we've seen prior to a recession, but it is a rather large drop and somewhat alarming.''

Franco added that she doubted the survey's slide would have been stemmed much had it been conducted after the Fed's surprise rate cut, given that two half-point reductions in January failed to cushion a steep drop-off in confidence in February.

As long as unemployment continued rising, market analysts said confidence would gradually slide, explaining why financial markets had not reacted as strongly to the report as they had to drops in confidence in previous months.

``To the extent that the labor market has started to deteriorate over the last few months decisively, I suspect that that's going to play itself out in gradually falling confidence,'' said Stephen Stanley, senior financial economist at Greenwich Capital Markets.

The Fed recently shifted its emphasis on sliding consumer confidence as a risk to the economy to weakened business confidence and capital spending, and that also explained the market's muted reaction to the data, Stanley said.

RETAIL SALES UP

Consumers, however, remained resilient as retail sales at discount, chain and department stores rose in the first two weeks of April. Warmer weather spurred sales of goods like outdoor furniture and spring clothes.

Instinet Research's Redbook Retail Sales Average rose 1.2 percent during the first two weeks compared to the same period in March, with many retailers slightly beating their sales targets.

A separate report from the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi and UBS Warburg showed chain store sales rose 0.4 percent during the week ended April 21, with most stores meeting sales targets.

A third report from International Strategy and Investment Group showed U.S. business activity rose slightly in the latest week, lifted by a pickup in retail sales even as revenue among home builders, manufacturers and technology companies fell.>>



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (36161)4/25/2001 5:01:01 PM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
AT&T TO CUT WORKFORCE 120 PERCENT

NEW YORK, N.Y. — AT&T will reduce its workforce by an unprecedented 120 percent by the end of 2001, believed to be the first time a major corporation has laid off more employees than it actually has.

AT&T stock soared more than 12 points on the news.

The reduction decision, announced Wednesday, came after a year-long internal review of cost-cutting procedures, said AT&T Chairman C. Michael Armstrong. The initial report concluded the company would save $1.2 billion by eliminating 20 percent of its 108,000 employees.

From there, said Armstrong, "it didn't take a genius to figure out that if we cut 40 percent of our workforce, we'd save $2.4 billion, and if we cut 100 percent of our workforce, we'd save $6 billion. But then we thought, why stop there? Let's cut another 20 percent and save $7 billion.

"We believe in increasing shareholder value, and we believe that by decreasing expenditures, we enhance our competitive cost position and our bottom line," he added.

AT&T plans to achieve the 100 percent internal reduction through layoffs, attrition and early retirement packages. To achieve the 20 percent in external reductions, the company plans to involuntarily downsize 22,000 non-AT&T employees who presently work for other companies.

"We pretty much picked them out of a hat," said Armstrong.

Among firms AT&T has picked as "External Reduction Targets," or ERTs, are Quaker Oats, AMR Corporation, parent of American Airlines, Callaway Golf, and Charles Schwab & Co. AT&T's plan presents a "win-win" for the company and ERTs, said Armstrong, as any savings by ERTs would be passed on to AT&T, while the ERTs themselves would benefit by the increase in stock price that usually accompanies personnel cutback announcements.

"We're also hoping that since, over the years, we've been really helpful to a lot of companies, they'll do this for us kind of as a favor," said Armstrong.

Legally, pink slips sent out by AT&T would have no standing at ERTs unless those companies agreed. While executives at ERTs declined to comment, employees at those companies said they were not inclined to cooperate.

"This is ridiculous. I don't work for AT&T. They can't fire me," said Kaili Blackburn, a flight attendant with American Airlines.

Reactions like that, replied Armstrong, "are not very sporting."

Inspiration for AT&T's plan came from previous cutback initiatives, said company officials. In January of 1998, for instance, the company announced it would trim 18,000 jobs over two years. However, just a year later, AT&T said it had already reached its quota. "We were quite surprised at the number of employees willing to leave AT&T in such a hurry, and we decided to build on that," Armstrong said.

Analysts credited Armstrong's short-term vision, noting that the announcement had the desired effect of immediately increasing AT&T share value. However, the long-term ramifications could be detrimental, said Bear Stearns analyst Beldon McInty.

"It's a little early to tell, but by eliminating all its employees, AT&T may jeopardize its market position and could, at least theoretically, cease to exist," said McInty.

Armstrong, however, urged patience: "To my knowledge, this hasn't been done before, so let's just wait and see what happens."

Follow-up: AT&T CEASES TO EXIST

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