re: DoCoMo - Delayed Launch or Soft Launch ??? "Foma" Site
<< anyone with a sub? 6000 yen per month >>
Nope ... but complete text of the "Nikkei" article quoting "The Nihon Keizai Shimbun" is below.
Before it is a Reuters article that ran slightly earlier today (Monday) that refers to a "soft launch" and states that "DoCoMo ... is expected to pitch prices high to dampen expected avid demand." It also states (similar to the "Nikkei" article that "concerns about software glitches" will force the soft launch. Kiyoyuki Tsujimura states that "We don't like to push the axle from the beginning ... we like to have a quiet start and make sure that everything will be OK."
So either"The Nihon Keizai Shimbun" has a "scoop" or DoCoMo will soft launch, which was their original plan for the May launch which was intended primarily for initial debugging initially from inception using very limited infrastructure with expansion beyond Tokyo commencing later this year.
Next couple of days will be interesting. It will be interesting to see if DoCoMo confirms the "Nikkei" story.
Meantime, here is a link to the official "Foma" site:
foma.nttdocomo.co.jp
Wording will have to change, if in fact launch is delayed.
>> Telecoms Investors Baulk at 3G Gamble
Reuters
Apr 23 2001:
Tokyo
The launch of the world's first third-generation cellphone services in Japan next month could keep bruised investors in a high stakes telecoms game, but few are taking bets on the industry's wild card for now.
With global telecoms shares trading at around half last year's peaks on average, investors from Hong Kong to Tokyo, London to New York say it could take years for bearish sentiment to turn, and even the most optimistic have only neutral holdings.
"It's not as if there's no hope for third-generation (3G) services," said one Japanese telecoms fund manager. "But the question is how to go from here to profits in the future. It will take time for investors to begin seeing the merits of 3G."
Scepticism over whether third-generation cellphones will yield fresh revenues from services such as high-speed Internet, data, video and music has been fuelled in part by a dizzying $108 billion that companies have paid for European 3G licences.
Consequently, as European mobile operators play catch-up and build their own high-speed networks, they face nearly double the cost burden of rivals in countries that awarded licences at no cost, such as Japan. To compound matters, Europe's initial dabble with mobile Internet services was over-hyped -- and flopped.
"The European guys have gone too far," said one London-based telecoms investor. "(British-based cellphone giant) Vodafone held a conference a month ago where everyone got frightfully excited because they were 'optimistic about the future'.
"Well they have to be, don't they? They've gone too far, spent too much money on licences not to be 'optimistic'."
What Does I-Mode Prove?
Companies and bullish experts are pinning hopes on Japan's biggest group, NTT DoCoMo Inc , whose second-generation i-mode Internet mobile service has taken the domestic market by storm, doubling average customer revenues since a February 1999 launch.
More than 22 million i-mode subscribers -- growing at a rate of 40,000-50,000 each day -- check their e-mail, read news and bank on the move, providing analysts and investors with the first proof that well-targeted mobile data services can be lucrative.
The success of i-mode is attributed partly to Japanese handsets, which are light, slim, have a long battery life, offer colour screens and audio technology that is streets ahead of overseas rivals -- and come with fat instruction manuals.
If you can find your way around the phone, chances are you'll find your way around Tokyo with on-screen maps and directions -- perfect for a city in which streets tend to have no names, buildings are not numbered and taxis get lost.
But as investors demand that companies rein in capital expenditure against a backdrop of slowing economic growth, it remains to be seen whether a more pricey and higher-speed 3G version of i-mode as a bridge from 2G services and also restore investor and consumer confidence in mobile data outside Japan.
"The problem in Europe is that we know they are going to build the networks, but not what services there will be," says Philip Haworth, investment manager at Scottish-based Aegon fund management. "But at least Japan shows mobile data is theoretically possible."
Average revenues per user (ARPU) in Japan come in at around 7,800 yen ($64) per month -- more than twice those of some overseas rivals -- with mobile data revenues making up for a 5-10 percent annual drop in traditional voice revenues as prices fall.
Grappling With 2.5G
Debt-strapped European operators, most of which officially plan to beat the United States to market by starting to launch 3G services in 2002, are seeing mobile phone demand slacken and fierce price competition eat into customer revenues.
Only too aware that the future of the industry hangs on an unproven technology, European groups and others are still struggling to launch interim 2.5G mobile Internet services after slower 2G data services disillusioned Internet-savvy users because Web access was limited, slow and sometimes impossible.
"Eventually we think 3G will be rolled out," said Tim Ghriskey, portfolio manager of the $4 billion U.S. Dreyfus Fund. "We just don't think the timetable is going to be quick. So far in Europe, (mobile data) has been a bust, there hasn't been demand and that's what worries us about it in the United States."
While some doubt that 3G services will be widely available in Europe before 2003/04, DoCoMo is steaming ahead. It will unveil its pricing plans for 3G mobiles on Thursday and, in a country in which gadget-crazy subscribers upgrade handsets every six months, is expected to pitch prices high to dampen expected avid demand.
"DoCoMo has a winning model with its i-mode service," said Robin How, managing director at APC Asset Management in Hong Kong. But he adds that Japan's success can partly be attributed to consumers who want the latest gizmo -- and will pay for it.
"I sense that people are anxious because they want the West to take it (mobile data) on in the space of about three months. But it will probably take nearer three years," he says.
Others also argue that i-mode's growth hinges in part on the fact that few Japanese consumers have Internet access at home via personal computers and that only around 50 percent of Japanese own mobile phones, compared with over 60 percent in Europe.
However, even DoCoMo says profits from 3G are still some four or five years away.
Soft 3G Launch
Despite i-mode's success to date, concerns about software glitches as an increasing number of functions are built into Japan's funky handsets have prompted DoCoMo to seek a soft launch of its first 3G phones in key Japanese cities at the end of May.
"We don't like to push the axle from the beginning," Kiyoyuki Tsujimura, the managing director of DoCoMo's global business department told Reuters. "We like to have a quiet start and make sure that everything will be OK."
Although DoCoMo says it only wants to attract 150,000 customers to 3G in the first year, investor hopes that new services will help offset tariff cuts have helped to propel the group's shares 20 percent higher this year.
Despite an 11-year bear market, triggered by persistent pessimism about a moribund economy, DoCoMo successfully placed 800 billion yen ($6.6 billion) of new shares in February and is expecting record net profits of $2.8 billion for 2000.
Nevertheless, analysts do not expect DoCoMo's initial 3G services to be compatible with European standards -- one reason why Japanese rival J-Phone , the Japanese group backed by British-based Vodafone and British Telecommunications Plc , is delaying its initial 3G services until next June.
Attempts to identify revenue streams from new services are also muddied by the high cost of infrastructure, unclear business models and a lack of equipment -- only two out of 11 of DoCoMo's suppliers will be ready with 3G handsets next month.
While sentiment toward 3G outside Japan is relatively subdued, with some doubting whether speedy mobile Internet services will ever get off the ground abroad, investors argue that 3G investments can only be recouped by those with scale.
"I think there has to be more consolidation in the industry before investor confidence will start to return," said one London-based fund manager. "The costs are just too high to expect more than three players to make money in each market.
"I think we'll see global consolidation and that there will be a big period of upheaval in the telecoms industry before all this is over, leaving just a few truly global players." <<
>> DoCoMo To Delay 3G Rollout Until October
April 24, 2001
Tokyo
Nikkei
Running into technical problems in setting up 3G (third-generation) wireless networks, NTT DoCoMo Inc. (9437) will push back its planned rollout of 3G cellular service from the end of May to October, The Nihon Keizai Shimbun learned Monday.
Running into technical problems in setting up 3G (third-generation) wireless networks, NTT DoCoMo Inc. (9437) will push back its planned rollout of 3G cellular service from the end of May to October, The Nihon Keizai Shimbun learned Monday.
The delay is expected to have repercussions in the global cellular market, causing U.S. and European wireless providers to put off launching 3G services until next year. It is also seen as a direct blow to cellular phone manufacturers, which have been counting on 3G to touch off a wave of new demand.
NTT DoCoMo, which has taken the lead in setting 3G standards, had planned to launch its service May 30, becoming the first in the world to make a full-scale plunge into 3G.
The plan called for NTT DoCoMo to roll out 3G in the 23 wards of Tokyo, plus parts of Yokohama and Kawasaki, signing up 150,000 subscribers in the first year.
The big advantage to 3G is that it will allow for rapid transmission of video, enabling wireless videoconferencing and other applications. But the software required for cell phones and high-speed communications networks to support 3G is extremely complex.
NTT DoCoMo uncovered bugs in the software testing, which raised concerns that a full-scale 3G launch would be marred by communications glitches, according to informed sources. Some industry insiders say further delays are possible if the software problems are not worked out quickly. <<
- Eric - |
