Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (1085)	4/24/2001 11:29:12 AM
From: Wally Mastroly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

Consumer Confidence continues to sag + Dismal view/analysis; U.S. Consumer Confidence Declined to 109.2 in April (Update1) - 04/24 10:39 By Siobhan Hughes Washington, April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer confidence in the U.S. economy fell in April, matching a 4 1/2-year low and a reflection of reduced optimism about job prospects, a private survey showed. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 109.2, the sixth decline in seven months, from a revised 116.9 in March. The April reading was the same as February's index, which was the lowest since October 1996. Confidence helps drive consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of economic growth, and April's decrease shows an economy struggling to rebound. ``Consumers are concerned about the job market and perhaps more importantly, about future income prospects,'' said Chris Low, chief economist at First Tennessee Capital Markets in New York. Still, consumers may take comfort in the recent stock market gains. ``Barring another reversal, confidence will be higher in May.'' Government securities fell and stocks rose on expectations optimism will start to rise in coming months in wake of the Federal Reserve's reduction in interest rates last week and rising stock values. The government's 10-year Treasury note fell 13/32, pushing up the yield 5 basis points to 5.23 percent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 99 points, or 0.9 percent. Fed policy makers last week surprised investors by cutting interest rates for the fourth time this year. Central bankers cut the overnight bank lending rate to 4.5 percent, the lowest in more than six years. Stocks Rally That helped boost stock prices further in April. The Nasdaq Composite Index has jumped 15 percent in April, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has climbed almost 7 percent. Analysts had expected a confidence index reading of 112 after March's originally reported 117. The April decrease reflected reduced optimism about both present and future conditions. The component of the confidence index that tracks consumers' present situation fell to 155.6 -- the lowest since 147.5 in October 1997 -- in April from 167.5. The gauge of consumer expectations for the next six months fell to 78.2 in April from 83.1. Layoff announcements this month at companies such as Nortel Networks Corp., the largest maker of fiber-optic equipment, and Minnesota Mining & Manufacturing Co., the maker of products ranging from Post-It Notes to circuit boards, seem to be contributing to consumer pessimism. ``The most important indicator looking forward is jobs,'' said Richard Yamarone, senior economist at Argus Research Corp. in New York. ``Jobs determine spending, not confidence. We shouldn't expect to see strong spending in coming months.'' Jobs The percentage of Americans who saw jobs as plentiful fell to 40 percent in April, compared with 43.8 percent a month earlier. The April index was the lowest since 36.4 in November 1997. The share seeing jobs as hard to get rose to 14.2 percent from 12.6 percent in March. The April share was the highest since 14.6 in December 1998. St. Paul, Minnesota-based Minnesota Mining said yesterday it will fire 5,000 workers, or 7 percent of its staff, and half of those job cuts will be in the U.S. over the next 12 months. Nortel said last week it plans 20,000 job cuts, or 21 percent of its workforce, by midyear. That's why some consumers have responded by curbing their buying plans. The share of consumers planning to buy a home fell to 3.2 percent from 4.2 percent. The percentage planning to buy a automobile fell to 7.6 percent from 7.9 percent. Greenspan Investors and Wall Street analysts are watching the Conference Board's report closely after Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan recently cited confidence as a determinant of whether the economy rebounds quickly or stays in a slump. With the economy slowing more than Fed officials had hoped, ``the crucial issue is whether that marked decline breaches consumer confidence, because there is something different about a recession from other times in the economy,'' Greenspan testified on Capitol Hill in January. The New York research group surveys about 5,000 households about general economic conditions, their employment prospects and their spending plans. Since reaching an all-time high of 144.7 in May and January of last year, the confidence index has declined. Some business executives have already seen reduced consumer confidence damp sales. ``Consumer confidence was dropping'' so ``people slowed down their picture-taking,'' Daniel Carp, chief executive of Eastman Kodak Co., said in an interview last week. Kodak is the largest photography company. dismalscience.com