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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (45811)	4/23/2001 9:26:04 PM
From: StanX Long	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I mentioned last night that your B to B charts showed 1997 -98 to look similar to the 2000 - 01 first two months. Now the March data supports the idea. If the continues we should see the B to B to bottom August September. 2000 1997 JAN 1.39 1.08 FEB 1.44 1.07 MAR 1.46 1.15 APR 1.36 1.1 MAY 1.29 1.09 JUN 1.27 1.07 JUL 1.22 1.12 AUG 1.23 1.1 SEP 1.17 1.06 OCT 1.16 1.02 NOV 1.12 1 DEC 0.99 0.99 JAN 0.8 0.93 FEB 0.73 0.9 MAR 0.64 0.82 APR 0.78 MAY 0.81 JUN 0.74 JUL 0.65 AUG 0.57 SEP 0.57 OCT 0.75 NOV 0.84 DEC 0.97 Thanks for your data. Stan

To: Gottfried who wrote (45811)	4/23/2001 9:34:29 PM
From: brunn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, thanks for those numbers. They confirm what the companies have told us: this downturn has been the most sudden in recent history. I thought 1998 was a dramatic reversal, but the fall from .99 to .65-64 has taken 3 months this time vs. 7 months last time. The market will interpret the news one of two ways, depending on its fickle mood: 1. We have fallen so far so fast that it cannot go down much further, the worst must be over (variation on the "it is so bad it cannot get any worse" theory that sparked this chip rally about two weeks ago.) 2. If this is the most sudden downturn, may be it is also the most severe. If this is the case, the recent run-up might be considered premature. Previous downturns lasted up to 10 months to a year and people might start worrying that this downturn, if indeed the worst, could last even longer. Current valuations in this sector are discounting the #1 interpretation.