Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shack who wrote (690)	4/23/2001 8:48:06 PM
From: JRI	Respond to of 209892

Yeah, if that Sept. downtrend line gets broken....I think that's going to be the "signal" to everyone scared of this rally to get back in......you know the houses/pundits will be pumping at that point....and I think it will be successful in pulling/dragging in the last dollars out of money markets.... I love the idea of that 200 DMA being the wall that we hit, and sending us back down...that would scare the bullish technicians.....however, I would think breaking 2250 would bring such a burst of excitement, I'd could also seeing going higher than just 2500.....250-300 pts. (2250-2500) wouldn't be that much of a huge jump above 2250 (given the move from 1623).....maybe we could exhaustion gap it? One other thing to consider: Perhaps at that point, the market will be somewhat struggling with higher bond rates, a weaker dollar (dissuading European investors from participating), etc......and therefore, the 250-300 pts. will be enough... (To go full-circle...such is my brain)..then again, the Euros jumping in is usually the top....maybe we need them afterall to end this thing...(sharp up move) Final thought: Dick Armas, who took a lot of crap for calling a bottom for a few weeks starting in mid-March (finally getting it right later).....is calling a short-term top now...said we went too far, too fast.....and for this rally to be "anything"...we need to successfully retest, and likely at much lower levels (than the close today)....I still respect his work....for any guy that has an index named after him....well... Dick, where were you Fri. aft. when I couldn't make up my mind to hold shorts over weekend? ng.

To: Shack who wrote (690)	4/23/2001 8:55:27 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

OK....gonna try to put you on spot again... What is your expectation of the next leg up (after this A or 1...or whatever it winds up being labeled..) is complete... Should we look at fibo retracement levels for strong clues? I'd think if 2047 turns out to be the low....this up leg can get to 2100-2105 (First "main" fibo from today's lows) at least....if we hit bobcor's target of 2000 (if indeed, the "A" completes tomorrow morn)...then 2070-2080 would seem like a good target (38% fibo...and getting right back to support- now resistance, from today).. The problem is trying to hold it long between 2100 and 2200....it could stop running at a lot of places.... Any hint/clue where I could feel better about holding anything long between 2100 and 2200 (if we manage to get there?).....(maybe we'll get a clean wave structure...but if it's muddled like today/Friday?)..what to do...what to do?