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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: t2 who wrote (75787)4/23/2001 9:37:26 PM
From: puborectalis  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
Japan is tops in wireless.................Japan's IMT-2000 3G Mobile Phone Service to
Launch Soon

April 23, 2001 (TOKYO) -- Japan's launch of the next-generation mobile phone
service,
International Mobile Communications 2000 (IMT-2000), is now less than two months
away.

Japan will be at the vanguard, as NTT DoCoMo Inc. will pioneer the service at the end
of May under the name of "FOMA." J-Phone Group and KDDI Corp.'s cellular phone
service unit, au Group, will follow in six months to one year.

Fast and Flexible Communication Functions

The latest cellular phone standard is known as "the Third Generation" (3G), and FOMA
is compatible with this standard. It is a drastic advancement over the First Generation
(1G) using analog communications, and the Second Generation (2G) using digital
communications.

The fundamental difference between IMT-2000 and the 1G or the 2G services is that it
is
a global specification that has been standardized by the International
Telecommunication Union (ITU), a United Nations organization. However, five
recommendations co-exist as IMT-2000 specifications. The IMT-2000 specification is
only regulated as "a cellular phone system which uses 2GHz band approved by the
ITU," therefore data communication functions and communication quality in each
system will vary.

In Japan, three groups, NTT DoCoMo, J-Phone, and KDDI's au, have obtained
business licenses for IMT-2000. Among these, NTT DoCoMo and J-Phone have
adapted the W-CDMA system for the IMT-2000 specification. It is expected that the
majority among worldwide operators will adopt W-CDMA. On the other hand, au has
adopted the cdma2000 system, which is an extension of its current system, cdmaOne,
and cdma2000 is expected to have the next largest number of operators.

The planned timing of the service launch is the end of May for NTT DoCoMo, June
2002 for J-Phone , and September 2002 for au. NTT DoCoMo will first start with a
small
service area, and aims to get 100,000 to 200,000 subscribers.

Service Fees Showing Downward Trend

NTT DoCoMo plans set FOMA's call charges at the same level as to those of PDC
system cellular phones. It is likely that in view of competition, other operators will set
their call charges at the same level as or slightly lower than NTT DoCoMo. This means
that call charges are not likely to go down.

On the other hand, the three operators, NTT DoCoMo, J-Phone and KDDI's au, are
moving in the direction of lowering packet communication charges.

Currently, packet communication charges by NTT DoCoMo's "DoPa" are 0.2 yen per
128 bytes. With FOMA, it is expected that it will be 0.02-0.04 yen, which will be
around
one tenth of the current level. (121.61 yen = US$1)

However, it is not clear whether other operators will use FOMA's fee structure for their
packet communications service. In particular, au is taking a stance to introduce a system
for high-speed packet communication called "1xEV-DO" by the end of 2002 with the
view of an introduction of a fixed fee system for packet communication charges.

In addition to installing new wireless communication systems, operators are developing
and standardizing technology for the IP packet communication system called "all IP,"
by building backbone networks for IMT-2000 using IP routers. This is because it will
have a beneficial effect on containing costs and lowering communication charges.

New Terminals Fully Loaded with New Functions

The image of compatible cellular phones is emerging. The IMT-2000 terminals that NTT
DoCoMo will release ahead of the rest of the world will be the following three types
(with four models): (1) a video-phone type, (2) a browser-phone type, and (3) a data
communication only-type. Among these, the video-phone type terminals can be
described as products especially for IMT-2000.

The browser-phone type emphasizes mobility. The cell phone will just be an IMT-2000
version of the current i-mode cell phone. The data communication only-type will be
used with notebook PCs and PDAs. The initial appearance will mainly be a PC card
type, and car-use types and a data communication unit included in a PDA should
appear later.

Each terminal will add functions to the current types of cell phones. NTT DoCoMo's
FOMA browser-phones and video phones will be capable of "multi-calls." The
multi-call feature allows use of both voice communication and packet communication
simultaneously.

Using Different Terminals with One UIM Card

IMT-2000 terminals will store user information on an IC called a user identity module
(UIM) which is smaller than a postage stamp, and by loading the UIM to various
devices it will become possible to use many terminals under one contract.

The design of a UIM is an extension of SIM, installed in GSM cell phones, for
IMT-2000. In particular, a UIM must be loaded in terminals of the W-CDMA system,
which NTT DoCoMo and J-Phone have adopted. NTT DoCoMo announced that
terminals compatible with its FOMA service should be equipped with a UIM under the
name of "FOMA Card."

With cdma2000, which au is adopting, on the other hand, the UIM is set as an option.
KDDI, at the core of the au Group, is being careful about UIM. It said, "a decision is yet
to be made on the usage of UIM."

Communication Speed Approaching Broadband

IMT-2000's data communication speed is more than ten times faster than current cell
phones. With FOMA, the upstream communication speed from a terminal to a base
station is 64kbps and the maximum downstream speed 384kbps, and it is possible to
secure sufficient bandwidth even in downloading or streaming moving images.

This maximum speed of 384kbps is achieved by a packet communication system.
Although, FOMA also offers a data communication service using a circuit switching
system, the speed will be a maximum of 64kbps for both upstream and downstream.

However, users cannot always enjoy the maximum communication speed. With
W-CDMA and cdma-2000, which use CDMA technology, the radio waves for data
transmission between a base station and users' terminals will be shared by multiple
number of voice communication users. Therefore, it is not possible for a great number of
users to always communicate with the speed of 384kbps.

Technically, a maximum 2Mbps data communication speed can be realized with
W-CDMA. One of the reasons NTT DoCoMo restricts the upper limit to 384kbps is to
achieve efficient use of radio waves. If a sector throughput is enhanced as a result of
improvement in the wireless communication technology, it is possible that the data
communication service speed for end users will be greater than 384kbps, or a
megabyte-level may become available.