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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Jackson who wrote (37147)	4/23/2001 11:23:05 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

That may be true but I think that there was a massive build up in corporate and communications infrastructure based on the erroneous fear that if you didn't quickly jump on the Internet "new economy" bandwagon that you and your business faced obsolescence. A big bubble has gone bust and some portion the rational for spending has gone bust with it. Companies will spend on IT and communications but they will do so more slowly and much more objectively than they had when the bubble was being pumped up. There is no return to the mass mania that drove the industry to growth extremes. Meanwhile there is excess capacity and time for competitors to improve production efficiencies of once hard to get parts. I guess this is a debate that will go on for a while and our job is to watch for early signs of whatever trend will develop. So far I see very little to get encouraged about and continued down turns in already lowered estimates. The few supposedly bright spots don't look quite so glowing under close scrutiny: Intel's tract record for predicting results has been disappointing recently. IBM did well because of a big increase in service revenue that masked continued weakness in PCs and other hardware portions of their business. Microsoft has finally hit their stride with Windows 2000, the McDonald's hamburgers of operating systems (Micky D's always does good in a recession). And Dell's nice results masks the fact that they did well by virtue of lowering prices to the detriment of their competitors rather than because of an expanding overall market. Where is the "light at the end of the tunnel"?