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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 10K a day who wrote (45825)	4/24/2001 1:17:24 AM
From: StanX Long	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

OT, I read many different threads on a daily bases. On the CSCO thread, I have read many posts discussing this $2.5 Billion write off. The basic question on the CSCO threads is, can CSCO use this material they have written off in this $2.5B ? Some are saying it is ok for CSCO to use that material. This sounds very wrong. Many of your know much more than I, so I ask, should CSCO scrap that material as a write-off would suggest. They got the tax break. Would not this be unfair to their rivals? Thanks in advance. Stan

To: 10K a day who wrote (45825)	4/24/2001 1:55:50 AM
From: brunn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I am not arguing, I am speculating. Basically, what we see in the book to bill data is confirmation of what we already know: The already notoriously cyclical semiequip industry has outdone itself as much on the downside now as it did on the upside last year. The data could not be interpreted otherwise. What is arguable is how the market will react. You might think it is laughable to consider it "peachy" that this downturn is so dramatic but you cannot deny that stocks like AMAT in this sector have risen about 50% in the face of this record-breaking downturn in semiconductor equipment orders (rising from the 30's when the book to bill was .99 in December to the 50's as of this week.) The market seems to interpret data from this sector in an unpredictable fashion, to put it mildly. This might be somewhat irritating but it is the reality of investing in this sector, at least for the time-being. In the end, I guess, it really is a game. Is there really much doubt that AMAT will survive this downturn to make more money than ever some day in the not too distant future? In the end, it really does not matter materially to the company if orders bottom in April or if orders bottom in October. But for the stock market this question seems to be the only question. Everyone investing in this sector knows there will be upcycles and downcycles and most everyone believes that long-term there will be more growth than decline in this sector. A buy and hold strategy is totally appropriate if you refuse to play the game. However, the game, if played correctly can certainly add to your return. The object of this game, of course, is to buy when the most people are selling and sell when the most people are buying.

To: 10K a day who wrote (45825)	4/24/2001 3:55:54 AM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

I have certainly been surprised by the extent to which AMAT's PSR, P/B, etc. have held up compared to previous industry cycles. And I don't really buy Jonathan Joseph's argument that things have gotten so bad that they can't possibly get worse. That is a plausibility argument at best. That having been said, I would be careful about comparing AMAT to CSCO. Deep downturns are old hat for semiconductor equipment companies, and from what I've heard, Cisco has not experienced this even once.