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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Shepherd who wrote (45853)	4/24/2001 8:40:46 PM
From: kdavy	Respond to of 70976

OT: intrinsic value <There are two key variables to factor into such a calculation...(1) the interest rate one assigns to discount future earnings, and (2) the expected growth (or decline) in future earnings. As you might imagine, forecasting either one of these variables is a complex and imprecise science -- just look at how securities analysts flub up. Trying to predict earnings growth rates for a company such as AMAT is indeed difficult.> I agree that forecasting expected growth is an imprecise science or no science at all. There are too many macro and micro economic factors that affect this number. We as individual investors do not have access to the parameters that are used in this imprecise science. The analyst' forecasts are not really public service announcements. I do not understand why should John Joseph ( or for that matter any other analyst) wants to give away free information to us public. Manipulation??? Look at any chart (http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/PnF.asp?S=amat), last three months amat price varied between 35-58, that is roughly a 25% plus/minus variation from a mean of 46. And you will find this type of variation within any three month period. Point is that the intrisic value is in the eye of the beholder and this number is very fickle. By the way-- when the economy grows at a 5% rate, how come semi,equip, drugs and finance and everything else grows at 20+% rate. Who is not growing to keep the average at 5%. Regards. Kdavy