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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (3229)	4/24/2001 4:59:29 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

cb, i really don't think anybody like tl and ev. seriously. sometimes we joke about it, but nobody really thinks it is funny. i've said over and over that i hope i'm wrong in my tanstaafl view. one reason why i b* and moaned during the runup is b/c i i believe that secured a bad result long term. simple cause and effect. iow, i did what i could to prevent the bubble and the follow on pop. i firmly believe that if the naz remained reasonably valued, we would not have collapsed 60%. let me go on record. i do not want tl and ev b/c i fully expect to one of the many unemployed and i don't want to be there. >>25% unemployment. 25% of farm land lost to foreclosure sales. Sales of new automobiles down 75% from the 1929 peak. A bushel of wheat that cost $1 in 1929 sold for 30 cents in 1932. Nine thousand banks went under.<< i think what really interests folks is what caused these effects and not effects themselves. if one can define some reasonable causes then one might have a decent chance at predicting general economic environments in the future. if we see 25% unemployment now then it is surely too late. i'm not sure how we would get out of that kind of negative spiral. war helped a bit last time. i don't see war helping this time, if we see 25% unemployment (worse than my worst nightmare, let alone reasonable expectation). tanstaafl keeps ringing in my ears. over and over. the principle is that if you can't magically create a lunch (bubble) w/o paying for it (tl & ev). maybe there is a free lunch now. i sure hope so. but my rationality circuit wqon't let me believe it. imho, the only solution is not to allow such disconnects to occur. no bubble = no pop.