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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (14997)	4/24/2001 7:58:47 PM
From: U.B. Green	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Zeev, if the market gets to 1850 before May 9, will that be the time to buy? I guess my real question is, will you just let me/us know when it is time to get back in? Regards, Bernie

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (14997)	4/24/2001 8:13:44 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 30051

Zeev: Re: "May 9th is early in the month, in order to prep the market for a real decline later this summer, we may even have to make a marginal new recovery high late in May, maybe this time to 2250 or even 2388 (doubtful on that one), otherwise, everyone will know that is just a bear market rally, a new recovery high will tag it as a new bull move, throwing caution to the winds, and that is when the "houses" will unload on the unsuspecting investors their excess." The rapid decline of the Nasdaq over the past two days has been something to behold. Now we can get two bad days after a positive run into expirations. But if we do not get a bounce in the next few days in the form of a counter-trend, then a retest of all lows could be in the cards at or around your date. Now that would be a nice thing. A retest that is successful would set the stage for a nice rally. Seems that interest rate reductions do not matter in this environment. It is a given. It is being perceived by the market as too little - too late. Greenspan should have followed Angell the first time around when the markets were begging for a "surprise" cut. Now the Nasdaq is below where it was when the Fed. gave us the "surprise" cut last week. Alan must be surprised. Buyers of this rally must be surprised if not shocked. Now this did not happen in 1998. It was off to the moon after the final cut. So, a retest may occur here. Note last year when we made the April low that it took a full five weeks for the retest. Note also in 1998 that a retest from the August low to the October low took as long. May 9th would be about five weeks. I think you said that you saw a decline in the Dow would carry below 9,000 this May. So if that is in the cards, seems like a retest at least of Nasdaq lows could be in order as well. But in your scenario, what happens after the May rally until the August bottom? BTW, you made an excellent call on this past rally. Did you see the VXN today? Oh my...

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (14997)	4/24/2001 8:16:44 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

They just gave us that lesson on AMAT and NVLS last week Your're not kidding. My bear fur is still singed. <G> Fortunately, in the last three days I've recouped 1/3 of my losses from my ill advised shorts. Zeev, feed those turnips an extra helping of manure tonight. They've earned a "treat." Jay

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (14997)	4/24/2001 8:29:40 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Zeev, did you see what CYMI said tonight? They expect things to get much worse. biz.yahoo.com . Our ongoing market analysis projects continued slowing in capacity related buys in deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography. With fabs operating at a fraction of their capacity, we anticipate more announcements by chipmakers of further reductions or delays in their capital spending plans for 2001. Given current industry conditions, including lack of visibility, we are not forecasting beyond the current quarter.''