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Strategies & Market Trends : The Options Box -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: t2 who wrote (10626)4/24/2001 8:00:08 PM
From: Poet  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 10876
 
Well that is odd, NV. I'm really surprised the VXN hit a high today. I had no idea. The only thing I can think of is that we approached 2000 today, a level which is psychologically important to many who believe the Naz may have bottomed. A breach of 2000 would, IMO, put a lot of fear back into the market for a retest of 2001 lows. Technically, this would be a good thing. I don't think the average investor sees it this way, though.

Thought about you today in light of AMAT. This is a very tough market to trade. I was whipsawed twice today, both long and short. You're a smart guy and a good trader. Don't let it get to you.



To: t2 who wrote (10626)4/24/2001 9:07:49 PM
From: John Pitera  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10876
 
I was surprised when a friend told me they had sold Jun 40 QQQ puts for 25% more than they had bought
them, last tuesday prior to Weds Fed cut and explosive move, obviously the higher implied volatility is
responsible.

here is one theory:

.

Jay Shartsis
VXN
4/24/01 2:41 PM ET
There is some discussion of the VXN (VIX for the Nasdaq), specifically about the meaning of the quite high readings today above .80. These kinds of numbers are to be expected in sharp selloffs. Since Nasdaq is only down one day off a big run-up, why such a normally fear-driven figure? Big VXN or VIX numbers are seen at market lows.

The face value interpretation is that there are put buyers now driving up the VXN, but it seems so out of line at 80.26 that I might consider it due to smart money front-running Nasdaq 100 (NDX) puts in advance of a sharp selloff. These numbers are so strange that this might be the preferred explanation, which would be bearish.