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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fyodor_ who wrote (37244)	4/25/2001 1:52:32 AM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

fyo, <Q2 is traditionally the weakest quarter and while the economy may bottom during it, odds are good that it will be tough to ship many more Durons.> True/ But, Duron today has no meaningful penetration in retail. If HP and Emachines signup in a big way then Q2 seasonality may not be an issue. <There is no price differentiation between Athlon and Duron - they are completely linear with frequency (well, almost). That naturally pushes the demand towards Athlons (better branding), as well as higher frequencies.> I am expecting that this should start changing this quarter. Duron with integrated graphics chipset should be cheaper than the cheapest Athlons with KT133A with a good margin. <As for P4 competition, I'll believe it when I see it ;-). Just like Palomino.> I have little doubt that P4 will eat into a good chunk of Athlon retail sales. I don't see anything iffy about it, the only real questions is "by how much?" <Seriously though... if you look at the rather substantial Athlon ASP erosion (Joe 10%, me 14%), much of that can be directly attributed to an increase in competitive pressures.> Frankly, I don't expect to see Athlon ASPs drop that much. I think the risk is much higher on the units side. It should be possible for P4 to replace 1/2 million to 1 million Athlons in retail (the $1200+ price points). AMD can make it up in 3 possible ways: 1. Increased Duron penetration (volume up, ASPs down) 2. laptop/server shipments (volumes up mildly and probably not much of an impact on Q2 ASPs) 3. corporate penetration (volumes up, ASPs up) My concern is that we will see 1 and 2 and not 3. i.e. relatively flat units at lower ASPs. Let's see. Chcuk