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Pastimes : Home on the range where the buffalo roam -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Boplicity who wrote (13056)4/24/2001 9:55:02 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 13572
 
There hasn't been a killer app in years

Yep - on ANY platform

M



To: Boplicity who wrote (13056)4/25/2001 12:33:52 AM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13572
 
From the Investor's Business Daily Website...
_____________________________________________
Wednesday, April 25, 2001

Interest Rate Cut, For Now, Just Psychological Boost

By Antonio A. Prado

Investor's Business Daily -- Internet & Technology

<<Last week’s surprise interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve gave the battered tech economy a big psychological boost.

Cutting the benchmark fed funds target rate another half a percentage point, for a total of two percentage points since January, is supposed to boost the economy by making money cheaper to borrow.

Much of the capital spending that drives the economy is done through borrowing. And a lot of that spending is in technology.

But until the economy picks up, the rate cut may be little more than a temporary morale booster for firms like DSET Corp. of Bridgewater, N.J. Many of the business-to-business e-commerce software firm’s clients have put off their purchases due to jitters about the slowing economy.

The result was the second straight quarterly loss after several quarters of strong double-digit year-over-year earnings growth.

Fed policy-makers targeted the interest rate cuts to CEOs of firms that buy technology like DSET’s, says David Orr, chief economist at First Union Corp. in Charlotte, N.C.

The Fed wants them to spend again to give the economy a boost, he says.

"In effect, they were saying to those CEOs, ‘We will do our part to boost economic growth, and we hope that now you will feel more comfortable about doing your part,’ " Orr said.

Recent years’ huge gains in workers’ per-hour output helped the economy surge without sparking inflation. Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan hopes continued investment in tech will preserve those productivity gains.

But don’t look for tech spending to surge back right away. It takes six months to two years for the effects of Fed interest rate moves to play themselves out in the marketplace, economists note.

The slowdown we’re seeing now is the result of Fed rate increases that began in June 1999. Through May 2000, rates were raised a total of 1.75 percentage points.

Fed policy-makers had raised rates in hopes of staving off a perceived inflation threat by slowing the then-hot economy.

"There is ample evidence that the current slowdown can be traced to the disincentive effects of Fed policy," said economist R. David Ranson, president of H.C. Wainwright & Co. in Boston. Now that the Fed has cut interest rates, Ranson says firms and investors are waiting for them to drop even more. It’s widely expected that another 50 basis points will be cut as early as May.

But even after that, Ranson argues, firms will delay spending and investors will remain shy until they think rates will creep back up — then they’ll invest right before borrowing begins to become more expensive again.

But by waiting, they’re slowing today’s economy even more, Ranson says. He argues the economy would have come back on its own this year, since the Fed stopped raising rates last summer.

Even when the economy picks up, don’t look for another tech surge the likes of the 1998-2000 boom, says William Anderson, an economist at North Greenville (S.C.) College.

"Whatever good effects occurred when the Fed lowered interest rates in the past are not likely to be repeated in the near future," Anderson said.

Why? Because the Fed pumped too much money into the economy when it lowered rates in 1998. That easy money led to lots of bad investments and an inflated stock market, Anderson says.

"Many investment ‘opportunities’ that seemed so promising just a couple of years ago have turned sour," Anderson said.

So for now, both old and new economy firms are waiting for stronger signs that things won’t get worse. Many firms still have too much excess inventory. And profits have been squeezed due to fierce competition that has kept prices down.

"The question manufacturers must struggle with now involves when to restart operations," said Michael Swanson, an economist at Wells Fargo in Minneapolis.>>



To: Boplicity who wrote (13056)4/25/2001 12:57:48 AM
From: T L Comiskey  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 13572
 
Sir Bop...............
comments....??
Tia
T

To:Jim Bryan who wrote (75911)
From: American Spirit
Tuesday, Apr 24, 2001 10:40 PM


WCOM- 80 million short shares must cover now. Heh heh.
It's below $19 but not for long. Easy money longs. Shorts cannot possible cover fast enough to escape the trap.



To: Boplicity who wrote (13056)4/25/2001 10:56:03 AM
From: Venkie  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13572
 
what's your take on jdsu..is it dead money



To: Boplicity who wrote (13056)4/25/2001 11:10:06 AM
From: solihull  Respond to of 13572
 
Ok, that's good
Thanks again

Lookee like must be unemotional here
My final plan:

CIEN and AMCC at 3:45 today
BRCD and QCOM at 3:45 tomorrow
SEBL and JNPR at 3:45 Friday
9:00 Sunday: pray

Comments?

TIA
j