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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (75905)	4/24/2001 10:17:08 PM
From: Dave Kiernan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Re-visit July - Oct '98? The scale appears balanced as of close today. Looks to tip down. stockcharts.com[w,a]weclyimy[d19970601,20010501][pb50!b13!a2252!a1619!a2028][vc60][iLo14!Lm12!Ll14!Lh39,1]

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (75905)	4/24/2001 11:06:25 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Haim: Thought you might appreciate the Contrary Investor (now a pay service) take on the surprise rate cut. " The Old Cut And Run...As you know, we last published just prior to the Fed Funds sneak attack last Wednesday. It's clearly old news, but we just can't help making a few comments. Thanks in advance for indulging us in a little venting. Rate cut needed? Yes, although ultimate effect is still in question. Making the actual cut is not our gripe. Sending mixed signals by having the Fed governors recently talk up the "second half recovery is on track" mantra, all the while plotting the "unexpected" rate decrease? Naw. What else would you have expected from this group? Pulling what has been termed a "Trader Bob (Rubin)" move by throwing gasoline on what had already begun as a speculative semi-open fire with the techs running? No. Our distaste for what happened last week has nothing to do with the act of cutting rates at all. The rate cut was an inevitability. Our sincere professional disappointment lies completely in the timing. Without sounding like soapbox maniacs, the rate cut last week was what we would characterize as one of the most blatant manipulative acts of the Greenspan Fed tenure. You know the first. It was the rate cut about 45 minutes before what was next day market open options expiration during the whole LTCM period. So this time, the boys actually cut about 13 trading hours before options expiration. Clearly this was major disruption to the options and derivatives players. Many call sellers, put buyers and shorts were severely burned in about 5 minutes time. Couldn't the Fed have cut rates a week earlier or waited until this week? Would it really have been that hard to wait another 14 trading hours before making an announcement as significant as this? Would the economic world as we know it have come to an end during that time? Of course not. If nothing else, the timing by the Fed smacks of manipulation, inside trading, rigged game and complete impropriety. A very sorry commentary on modern Fed decision making and execution in what is supposedly surmised to be a "free market" system. Free, indeed. Despite what clearly appears to be gamesmanship in the timing, bursting financial and economic bubbles of historical significance do not change course on a dime for surprise rate cuts. "