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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (6295)	4/25/2001 12:38:30 AM
From: Jack T. Pearson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

everybody is loaded up with more technology than they need to get the job done. I wouldn't write off the PC vendors just yet. PC sales are not just new sales. There is also company technology refresh. I wonder what the average computer refresh rate has been and how it is changing with time. In my company it is three years. I just got a new 933 Mhz Pentium III IBM desktop last week. Replaced my 200 Mhz Pentium Pro. Went from Windows 95 to Windows NT 4.0. A very high percentage of the replacements this refresh cycle are switching from desktop units to laptop units. The laptops come with NT 4.0, 19" monitors, and docking stations and cost twice what the desktop units do. NT 4.0 allows all computer software to be updated and inventoried remotely by the system administrators. Emphasis is increasing on served applications for product data management, company processes and procedures, personnel management, training, etc. I think a lot of the problems we are seeing in PC and software slowdown is working off inventory and temporary cutbacks in capital expenditures. People may limp along on a 4 or 5-yr old pc for a while, but you can wreck the company if a significant portion of your people are using 133 Mhz and 166 Hhz pcs with 5 to 10 Gb of hard disk. Even families need technology refresh. I had to upgrade my kids' computers because they couldn't run the new games. I upgraded mine so I could run filter all US stocks every evening while searching the internet and listening to music or watching streaming video. Had to get my wife her own computer so she didn't have to wait in line to do her email with her brothers and sisters, church stuff, girl scouts, and friends all over the country. Since everyone wanted to be on line at once and we didn't want hackers on our computers, we got a router and a 100 gb switch to tie everything into our cable modem. Most people don't have all this stuff, but more will as time goes on and prices come down. As prices come down, the number of people that can afford things goes up geometrically. Growth may have peaked, but I believe that over time PC vendors will still grow faster than most old economy companies. How often do you upgrade your refrigerator or your lawnmower? <gg> PS. I enjoy reading your posts. Great combination of humor, wisdom, irreverence.