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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: advocatedevil who wrote (45877)	4/25/2001 1:54:12 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

ST and IT trading: Yes, it is encouraging (for bears) that so many people seem so eager to believe good news. That's not the way it's supposed to be at bottoms. It worries me, though, when I think the news should make a group of stocks go one way, and they go strongly the other way. Makes me think, either 1) someone (with a lot of money) knows something I don't, or 2) I'm an idiot who is totally misunderstanding what's going on. Still, this is the third time in this bear market the SOX has made 50% upmoves off lows. The first two were all given back (and a whole lot more). So, this is normal volatility (he says, crossing his fingers and whistling past the graveyard). But, it's still a bear market: 1. bookings still going down (and how!) 2. consumer confidence going down (plunging, actually) I don't think I'll be going long semi-equips (except for ST trading), as long as the above two indicators haven't turned. If lower interest rates manage to put a floor under consumer confidence and consumer spending, then I'll stop selling the rallies. But I'm not going to assume the Fed can do this, or try to anticipate it. Show me. If the SOX retests its April lows (455), I'll probably be back to 100% long. I don't know where (or when) the bottom is, but 455 on the SOX is close enough to it, that I won't be holding puts below that level. Why did we get the Fed rally on the 4th cut, but not the 3d? Isn't 3 supposed to be the magic number?