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Technology Stocks : John, Mike & Tom's Wild World of Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (2297)	5/4/2001 10:56:38 AM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 2850

Technology Stock Selection Update--latest list of SSB preferred tech stock using their decision tree model--- just came out last night (FWIW) Source: Salomon Smith Barney Figure 1 Attractive Technology Stocks SSB Price Ticker Company Rating (April 30) ADBE Adobe Systems Inc 2H $44.92 BEAS BEA Systems Inc 2S 40.85 CSGS CSG Systems Intl 2S 58.21 CIEN Ciena Corp 2H 55.06 CMVT Comverse Technology 2M 68.50 EDS # Electronic Data Systems 1M 64.50 EFII Electronics For Imaging 2H 27.80 IM Ingram Micro Inc 2H 14.48 IBM # Intl Business Machines 1M 115.14 INTU Intuit Inc 2H 32.04 LIT Litton Industries 1M 79.66 MACR Macromedia Inc 2H 22.66 MERQ Mercury Interactive 2H 66.15 MSFT Microsoft Corp 1H 67.75 MUSE # Micromuse Inc 2H 49.50 SPOT Panamsat Corp 2H 36.67 PSFT Peoplesoft Inc 2H 37.04 QLGC QLogic Corp 1H 42.89 DSS Quantum Corp Dssg 2H 11.40 RSAS RSA Security Inc 1H 32.00 RTN B Raytheon Co. 1M 29.53 SCI # SCI Systems Inc 1M 25.55

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (2297)	5/12/2001 2:12:42 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 2850

Interesting point that Michael Cahill has about many of the telco bonds trading at too big a discount, this means that capital will continue to be scarce for some of the telco's and so Capex, could even head down some more from here. susan byrne, the very bright manager from Westwood Mngt in Dallas was the co-host on squawk box this week and she had multiyear charts showing technology capex spending as a % of GDP and it is still very high historically, and this implies it contracts further over the next year or two. She also had a chart ( I think these were 15 year charts) showing energy Capital expenditure as a % of GDP and it was still below average, at the bottom of the long term ranges. Cahill figures BRCM, PMCS and JNPR could still be vulnerable to patches of weakness if this reduced revenue growth story plays out. --------------------- Listening to the Telco Bears By James J. Cramer 5/10/01 1:50 PM ET Telco bears of the world, you deserve to be heard! And I went to hear you, yesterday, at the same conference that Bill Miller spoke at, for Tomorrow's Children. Your number was represented by Michael Cahill, a brainy young guy who is shorting telecom tech, specifically Juniper (JNPR:Nasdaq - news - boards), Broadcom (BRCM:Nasdaq - news - boards) and PMC-Sierra (PMCS:Nasdaq - news - boards). He's keying off this group for one main reason. As a high-yield bond expert, Cahill has tracked how the bonds of the buyers of these goods, the telcos, are trading. Right now he says a massive number of these bonds are trading at levels that indicate there are many more defaults coming. Given that, he doesn't believe that capital expenditures, which he thinks will fall 17% this year, are going to rise in 2002. (Most think that they will.) In fact, he thinks that 2002 will be far worse than 2001. Given that view, he wonders how these three stocks, which are trading at 10 times next year's estimated revenues, can possibly make the estimates. His speech, eerily reminiscent of what Ravi Suria used to talk about publicly when he was with Lehman Brothers, would mean that this most recent bounce in telecom equipment stocks would be a great shorting opportunity. Why listen to Cahill about these stocks? How about because Cahill was up 61% net of all fees last year for his fund (which began in April) and before that he was at the highly respected (and deservedly so) Kingdon Capital? Am I shorting these? Heck, man, I can't short anything. But I sure am not long them either.