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Strategies & Market Trends : The Options Box -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Poet who wrote (10652)	4/25/2001 8:11:07 AM
From: Poet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10876

Borrowed from the E-wave thread: Stockmarket Cycles update for Tuesday, April 24th. The next day or two of market action become critically important to the market's overall outlook. Yesterday, we gave you a short-term projection for the S&P 500 cash index calling for 1191.39 ± 7 points on an intra-day low basis. Today's low of 1,208.89 on the S&P implies there is further to go to the downside. On the other hand, it is possible to reach that downside projection without giving any further downside projections, so we must be prepared for a potential turnaround. However, the implication from our research concerning the time periods when the 10 day moving average of the tick on the New York Stock Exchange was greater than + 500 leads us to believe there is further to go, if not significantly further to go, on the downside. Today, the 10 day Trading Index closed at 0.91, the Open 10 at 0.82, and the New 10 at 0.83. The McClellan oscillator closed today at +18.2, a minor move from yesterday's reading of + 17.9, implying the possibility of a large move over the next few days. According to the formula, the odds slightly favor that move to be to the upside because the minor change in the oscillator was a positive one, but as we noted above, the tick indicator suggests the move could be on the negative side. The Dow was up over 120 points in the first hour of trading today, moving up to and slightly above its 200 day and one-year moving averages. It then fell 183 points to close near the lows of the day. The New York Stock Exchange index has declined to its 10 day and 50 day moving averages which closed the day today between 611.63 and 611.86. A convincing break of those levels tomorrow would strengthen the bearish case for the New York Stock Exchange. The Nasdaq Composite Index has generated a nominal 10 day projection down to 1931 ± 62 points. Mutual fund switchers Rydex switchers are 100% in the Ursa Fund, Fidelity Select switchers are 100% in Select American Gold. Fidelity select American Gold appears to have generated a nominal 78 week projection up to at least 14.08. That is an additional 12% higher than today's close of 12.56. All mutual fund switchers should call the telephone update each market day after 3:20 p.m. Eastern time and call each market evening. Stock-index futures traders -place your initial stops tomorrow at 1,231.40- cover your June S&P short positions tomorrow at 1,190.40. And reshort only on a move below 1,182.30 with a stop at 1,194.90. The X A U invalidated all outstanding downside projections today and, in so doing, generated an upside projection to at least 57.55. The June bonds still have a downside projection to between 98-99. stockmarketcycles.com

To: Poet who wrote (10652)	4/25/2001 9:03:52 AM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10876

Interesting thoughts, but I think I'll take the bear side on this one (huge surprise, I know). It sounds as though the bearish momentum has increased this morning. JNPR is trading down about $3 in the premarket now, and I'm looking for the reason. I am a less comfortable bull right now..at least for this week. However, JNPR is one of the stocks that if the downward momentum comes to a halt, it will have a big rebound. Just need to pick the bottom and you could have a double on a JNPR rebound if the shorts are still heavily involved in this one. In addition, the earnings of JNPR are much better than that of the communication chip stocks like AMCC, VTSS, PMCS and even the larger caps like Cisco. It is just so hard to believe that JNPR has a much better forward PE than even Intel! I missed out the rebound on JNPR last time but won't miss it this time. The bounce will be magnified by the short covering, again---that should be a factor in valuing call options as well...that is, paying a bit more for calls on this one. Now for the hard part..when to buy. I am looking at 50 OR possibly 40 depending upon how bad the Nasdaq gets. Plan to buy calls, even if they are expensive.