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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (164943)	4/25/2001 1:36:56 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 176387

Looking back at Microsoft, Intel and Dell performance in the late 1990s. I don't remember the exact dates but I know this was happening as component costs were decreasing. While Microsoft and Dell seemed to be positively correlated for a period of time (ie. going in upward direction), while Intel seemed to have under performed or remained flat. Don't remember the exact year but I know it was happening. Of course at the same time, Compaq was not doing that well--another similiarity. Intel is weak today and I see the development of a similiar pattern. MSFT and Dell gaining---recently. True that component cost reductions are being passed along to customers (especially business) but that only happens until the point where a demand shift is recognized. As soon as demand picks up a bit, the margins will quickly increase. The market is going to buy up Dell on the expected demand increase, IMHO. This quarter is probably in the bag. Remaining a little cautious is prudent, keeping investor expectations low. When was the last time Dell did a blowout quarter? I doubt this one will be but just image the market reaction if by chance they are able to pick up a lot sales late in the quarter. Might be like old times.<g> BTW--that year in which CPQ, Intel did poorly while MSFT and Dell did well is too important of a coincidence to dismiss....and remember Microsoft had a great quarter but present standards.

To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (164943)	4/25/2001 2:21:20 PM
From: D. Swiss	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

DJ, re: "nothing wrong with these growth numbers" The numbers are excellent except not one penny is going to the bottom line. If they can maintain this growth on the monster base that they have and increase the margin, then we will have a positive outlook. Until it translates into bottom line growth, what value is it? The Street seems to have a pretty consistent valuation model (PE in relation to future earnings growth). If future earnings growth is as it has been in the past two years, look out below. Right now Dell seems to be a ray of hope in a dismal tech market, but the bottom line is they are an extremely large company that cannot possibly sustain the growth it has in the past, they are in the middle of a price war environment and their competitors have become more Dell-like (selling direct). This doesn't seem so rosy to me. I hope for your sake I am dead wrong and Dell the stock will flourish, but I wouldn't count on much appreciation based on the current story. :o) Drew