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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (37294)	4/25/2001 6:23:38 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Joe, <Do you predict higher? My prediction is the highest of the people who entered their estiates on JC's site (here is how you can do it: Message 15709236 )> I think a million unit uptick on the Duron would not be too unlikely if AMD lands HP or Emachines big time. However, I am not predicting anything at this point. Just wondering what the folks on the thread think. <Basically, Duron has matched the cost of Celeron (+ motherboard/chipset) at the end of Q1, but exceeded performance and features (with the Sis chipset), so the door is wide open to take even more share. > I had much higher expectations of Duron and am disappointed how badly AMD did with this chip. Let's see if that changes this quarter. <Q3 should be even better than Q2, since the entire .18u line of P6 processors will be severely squeezed by Duron, and .13u will be only for high ASP notebook parts, not enough to battle in the low end.> In Q3, AMD may gain low-end market share but lose significant amount of high-end market share (assuming Brookdale shows up in time) unless Palomino steps up to the plate in time. <I do expect P4 to eat into Athlon somewhat (hence my prediction of lower Athlon revenue resulting from slightly lower units, and noticeably lower ASPs). But another way to look at it is that the loser will mainly be Piii, since it is less and less competitive, with every clock speed increase of Athlon and P4.> PIII is pretty much limited to the business segment now-a-days and seem to be doing fine in terms of ASPs. Intel is benefitting greatly due to AMD's lack of business penetration. So, the only real hurt may be in the retail market - i.e., P4s and Athlons - unless AMD breaks into some business boxes. Chuck