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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GST who wrote (124135)	4/25/2001 4:23:26 PM
From: H James Morris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

> at least it would give meaning to the "winners" thread. Gst, are they "winners" or "whiners"? I can't understand the difference anymore. Btw I do know they blame U Al for their buy and hold strategy debacle. Oh! they only have 6 investors left standing. 1 is a trust fund tennis player the other 5 are strung out on margin!

To: GST who wrote (124135)	4/25/2001 5:29:20 PM
From: H James Morris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Gst, did you know Billy was sending out death threats? >NEW YORK, April 25 (Reuters) - More time in the trenches -- talking to technology company employees, suppliers and customers -- and not keeping cozy with senior management is what set top research analysts apart in a Reuters survey. In sectors ranging from software to Internet to communications equipment, research analysts who commanded the highest ratings said their following among money managers was tied to a willingness to resist Wall Street's herd mentality. "Some 70-80 percent of the analysts will repeat whatever the company says," Lehman Brothers analyst Daniel Niles said. The 33-year-old was ranked No. 1 analyst in electronic equipment, No. 3 in semiconductors and No. 4 in the computer category among fund managers surveyed. But he didn't even make the top 10 list as far as company managers were concerned. The findings in this year's survey, which was conducted by Tempest Consultants Inc. of high-tech investors and company management, marks an about-face from a year ago, when it was closeness to managers -- and potentially lucrative investment banking deals -- that often counted most for analysts. "Being bearish and being right is how you make a name for yourself," Niles said of the method behind several dramatic ratings reversals that raised his profile over the past year. "The area you don't want to be in is if you're negative and you're wrong. If you're wrong God help you," he said. LOOKING PAST TOP MANAGEMENT Credit Suisse First Boston analyst Brent Thill, the No. 3 ranked software analysts in the poll of money managers, said he hones in on hard-core computer geeks and sales representatives -- not top management -- to assess a company's performance. "We're listening to what the industry is telling us," he said. "The CEO tends to sugar coat everything. You have to find out what are the consultants saying. There's a lot of marketing you have to (peer) through to see what's real." Much of what is labeled as investor research has forgotten the dictum of "buy low, sell high," Niles said. For example, he upgraded Apple Computer Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) on April 15, 1999 at $18 after studying consumer reactions to its then hip iMac computers. But the novelty of Apple's stylish line of computers wore off, leading him to downgrade the computer maker at $87. "How can you downgrade Apple?" other analysts asked him, he said. Both Niles and Thill said they have faced death threats from irate investors over their negative calls this past year. When Thill downgraded his rating on BroadVision (NASDAQ:BVSN) after hearing of complaints from systems integrators having trouble installing the complex software, his research team received 150 negative e-mails, mostly from day traders. "I don't care," said Thill, even though some of the responses included death threats. "My job is to be able to distinguish what's hype and what's reality. Our goal, at the end of the day, is to help our customers make money." It's a technique that Lehman Internet analyst Holly Becker has also used to rocket to prominence. Becker was rated No. 1 among fund managers polled in the Reuters survey, with 23.4 percent of votes, up from 2.8 percent of votes cast a year ago. In a mark of her independence, Becker was nowhere among the top 10 analysts favored by companies polled in a parallel survey. Becker made her name by becoming an early sell-side bear on Internet stocks such as Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO). She was the first of the Wall Street crowd to cut her rating on Amazon.com to neutral from buy. The pack followed. UNAFRAID TO GO BULLISH Top-rated semiconductor analyst Jonathan Joseph of Salmon Smith Barney catapulted to attention when he downgraded the chip stock sector on July 5, 2000. Again defying convention, he upgraded the sector two weeks ago. Ever the contrarian, Becker earlier this month told clients it was time to "jump back in" to Yahoo! as she raised her rating to buy from neutral. Her reversal came at a time when the company had warned its earnings would fall below already lowered estimates due to a deteriorating ad climate. However, Becker said a bottom had been reached and Yahoo's stock valuation had returned from nose-bleed high levels. The move helped catalyze a 24 percent rally around $12 and once again demonstrated her clout in the marketplace. The stock is now up 50 percent since Becker made the call on April 5. Becker, who went on maternity leave this week, was not available to comment for the story, a Lehman spokesman said. Top analysts attributed their success to their ability to synthesize broad trends and not get lost in the details. But others said their very attention to detail set them apart. UBS Warburg's Nikos Theodosopolous, the top-rated telecom equipment analyst by funds, said the bigger banks' capacity to track trends around the clock and across borders gives them an edge in an increasingly interconnected global markets. As always, speed remained a critical factor. "The objective is to try and look at a Polaroid picture developing and try and figure out what happens first," said Bear Stearns senior technology analyst Andrew Neff, who vaulted to No. 3 among portfolio managers in the computer category. Niles said he too talks to people up and down the food chain of the electronics industry. The clues to what's going on at hardware companies comes from their underlying suppliers. "What we try to do is get 100 points of contact around these different companies. We're basically flying blind, but the more of the data points you have, you can hopefully get a clearer picture," Niles said.