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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kash johal who wrote (37329)	4/25/2001 8:09:22 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

kash, did you read the news of delays from Silicon Valley Group's lithography tools? I think this will have the effect of equalizing the playing field on 0.13µ conversion. AMD's quarter is in trouble You really think beyond the 10% revenue reduction they allowed for? That leaves room for a drop of about $12M in "other," $41M in Flash (another 10%). That leaves room for a 10%, $60M drop at the PC Processor Group. I figure desktop CPU's could drop in quantity by 0.8M to 6.5M and ASP (K7 only) may drop to $85 as the absolute worst case. To meet the quarter AMD would need 150K Palomino notebooks at $150 and 150K Palominos sold into the server/dual-desktop market. Then the PC group would have revenues of 553+45 or 598M and AMD would have total revenues of 598 + 105 (foundry & other incl. chipsets) + 370M (flash) or 1073M, a reduction of 115M or 10%. Even with aggressive cost-cutting, AMD would not have more then 0.25 in earnings and it could be as low as 0.05. This is my worst case scenario and assumes that Intel quadruples P4 sales to 4M this quarter at ASP of $200 and an overall ASP of $150. Intel revenues would be down 12 to 15% 800M to 1000M in this scenario, obviously throwing them into an operating loss of about 200M. kash, I think you're "cover at 25.25" strategy will work, but I'll be buying July 25 calls there. :) PS, Does anyone here know if AMD uses SVG machines or not? Petz

To: kash johal who wrote (37329)	4/26/2001 1:06:51 AM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Kash, <AMD's Q2 is in trouble. Intel's is in much trouble as well.> AMD has ASP pressure on Athlons but could potentially alleviate it with incremental Duron and Palomino laptop sales. Intel on the otherhand is seeing serious pricing erosion on the mobiles and P3s. I really doubt if incremental P4 sales can makeup for the losses in these other two areas. I think Intel is in whole lot more trouble than AMD for Q2. <I think AMD may see 25 tomorrow if general market is weak. My buy back order is in at 25.25 on my short.> I am aggressively writing calls on my AMD position, I will probably use any dip below 25 to buy back my calls. Chuck