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Non-Tech : Moguls Mantra to the Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: $Mogul who wrote (93)	4/26/2001 6:59:32 PM
From: $Mogul	Respond to of 220

IMF sees sharp slowdown in global growth WASHINGTON, Apr 26, 2001 (The Canadian Press via COMTEX) -- The global economy will slow significantly this year and could face even greater problems if the U.S. economy weakens further, the International Monetary Fund said Thursday in a sober assessment of world conditions. The forecast represented a sharp markdown in growth projections since September, and the international lending agency cautioned that even the lower figure may prove too optimistic. "The prospects for global growth have weakened considerably, led by a marked slowdown in the United States, a stalling recovery in Japan and moderating growth in Europe and a number of emerging market countries," the IMF said in its new World Economic Outlook. The IMF projected that the global economy would expand this year by 3.2 per cent, a full percentage point lower than it forecast in its last economic outlook in September. For Canada, the IMF predicted the Canadian economy will grow by 2.3 per cent this year and 2.4 per cent in 2002. The current year's growth projections for Canada are half a point below the IMF's fall outlook estimate of 2.8 per cent. The new forecast was released as the 183-country IMF and its sister lending organization, the World Bank, prepared for joint spring meetings. Officials were hoping the sessions would attract fewer protesters than a year ago, when police arrested more than 1,300 who clogged intersections around the IMF and World Bank headquarters near the White House. The IMF's new growth projection would mark a sharp slowdown from global growth of 4.8 per cent in 2000, reflecting a dramatic slowing of the U.S. economy, the world's biggest. The IMF projected the U.S. economy would grow this year by just 1.5 per cent, far below the five per cent growth in 2000 and 1.7 percentage points lower than IMF's September forecast. IMF chief economist Michael Mussa told a news conference Thursday that so far the U.S. Federal Reserve has responded appropriately with its aggressive four interest rate cuts this year. He said lower rates combined with tax cuts being pushed by the Bush administration should be enough to keep the United States out of a recession and also provide support to the global economy. Mussa was less complimentary of the economic policies of the European Central Bank, which on Thursday refused once again to cut interest rates, something the IMF said is needed to battle global weakness. "In a slowdown such as we are now experiencing . . . it is desirable that the central bank of the second-largest economic area of the world needs to become part of the solution rather than part of the problem," Mussa said. The IMF projected that the United States would rebound in 2002 with growth of 2.5 per cent, a strengthening that should help produce global growth of 3.9 per cent next year. However, it cautioned that this forecast could be put in jeopardy if U.S. stock prices plunge further or if America's huge trade deficit leads to a sudden drop in the value of the dollar. "The outlook remains subject to considerable uncertainty and a deeper and more prolonged downturn is clearly possible," the IMF cautioned. One cause for concern is what might happen in Japan, the world's second-largest economy, which has struggled with a decade-long bout of weakness. The IMF forecast the Japanese economy will grow by a lacklustre 0.6 per cent this year, 1.3 percentage points lower than its September estimate. It put growth in 2002 at 1.5 per cent. For Europe, the IMF forecast 2.8 per cent growth in the 12 countries that share the euro currency, a full percentage point lower than in September. The world's developing countries should experience growth of five per cent this year, a drop of 0.7 per cent from the IMF's September forecast. The reduction was attributed in part to weaker demand for foreign goods by U.S. consumers. The IMF also said it believed that reforms undertaken since the 1997-98 global financial crisis, which pushed 40 per cent of the world into steep recessions, had made developing countries less vulnerable. The IMF said the most likely outcome for the global economy is that "activity in the United States picks up during the second half of the year, while growth in Europe remains reasonably robust and the recovery in Japan resumes in 2002." MARTIN CRUTSINGER The online source for news sports entertainment finance and business news in Canada Copyright (C) 2001 The Canadian Press (CP), All rights reserved

To: $Mogul who wrote (93)	5/2/2001 1:56:25 PM
From: SunSunM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 220

This leg up might not be done yet, nothing is rational in this market. FWIW, my prediction is, it can go up to 2400 - 2600 before it turns. The next bounce is when NASDAQ hits 1100 - 1300. Kwong.