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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike M who wrote (75994)	4/26/2001 2:43:57 AM
From: Herschel Rubin	Respond to of 99985

How about the impact of Friday's GDP report on the markets...? With the GDP data coming out on Friday, no one is going to want to be in the way of that report on Thursday before the close. After all, the GDP report is THE statistic which measures whether we're heading for a recession. My suspicion is that Greenspan got wind of the GNP data last week, showing the Jan-March 2001 with negative economic growth (two quarters signaling a recession)! Perhaps he lowered rates inter-meeting because he wanted to prevent a catastrophic stock market collapse on the forthcoming GNP release. If GDP is negative for the first time in over 10 years, pundits will be invoking the "RECESSION" word in every other sentence on CNBC and genuine fear may slip back into the market. On the other hand, a negative GDP might be seen as a positive for the markets because traders will take that to mean more rate cuts will be forthcoming. On the other hand (well, no more hands left), if the GDP shows a stronger economy than expected, then hopes for further rate cuts may be dashed and the market may not respond favorably. But then again, a stronger economy might be viewed as bullish. The market's response to the GDP really depends on what market player read into the GDP data and if it matches their expectations. Given the fact that many stocks staged substantial runups, there isn't much room for error because people already have high expectations of a second-half recovery. And there are plenty of people out there ready to pull the trigger if they see their recent profits begin to shrink. Anybody have any thoughts as to the market's response to the GDP data?

To: Mike M who wrote (75994)	4/26/2001 8:46:47 AM
From: Temple Williams	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Mike, I guess they never make it easy (messed with your 1234.00 on Globex). Maybe this is a gunslingers' market ... folks willing to sustain large drawdowns can hang on for good trades. But I've never been willing to be a gunslinger, despite the macho images it feeds to various conceits we all possess. I keep looking up the road and seeing Boot Hill, loaded with gunslingers. They even built a statue over Victor Neiderhoffer's plot (and he's still alive). Safe trading, or chicken trading, or spineless trading, or whimp trading ... whatever you want to call what I do ... is pretty tough in this market. But it'll get better. Always does. Still, as you say ... they really don't hand it to us very often, do they? Trade great. Temple